Derby Preview

Ah the Flat!

Juvenile horses; fitsome and bolshy as teenagers, prone to extravagant changes in mood, crises of confidence, physical eruptions and burgeonings. Above all horrendously frustrating to have any kind of investment in. Needless to say some horses, like some teenagers have everything you could ever dream of right there in their first flush of youth. These are the dreamboats and teen queens of each year’s classic generation.


At this early stage of the season all the punter has to help eke out his opinion on a race is one or two bits of form, stable gossip and the obligatory ‘glowing’ gallop report. We’ll need to plot a path clear of the whirlpools of hype that threaten to capsize our bets before they even reach the stalls. Saturday brings the Derby, my second favourite race of the flat season so we’ll set our sextants, attune our bullshit detectors and cut merrily into the swell.

Aidan O’Brien likes to take a banjo to many of the big races but he completely failed to hit the cow’s arse in last year’s Derby despite fielding six likely candidates. Again this year he goes in mob handed but the varied fates of the boy from Ballydoyle’s entries in recent days and weeks have caused ructions in the betting market. St Nicholas Abbey injured, Cape Blanco going to France, Jan Vermeer winning impressively in Ireland. All were right at the top of the betting and for the Derby this has particular significance.


Not once in the last ten years has the winner gone off at greater than 7/1 or from outside the first four in the betting. Of course trends are often liable to subverted in some daring new fashion but some, like the denim hot pant are never going to be away for too long. With a trend like the former it pays to wait until the day of the race but three that I like most from the first six (to allow for a bit of market movement at the time of posting are:

Jan Vermeer – A wide margin group 1 winner in France at 2 and won an average race well on his only other start this season. If he wasn’t a Ballydoyle horse he wouldn’t be 2/1 but being Johnny Murtagh’s ride of choice is a feather in his cap. The only one of the leading contenders to have form over another horse in the top half of the betting (Midas Touch) and will take all the beating.


Bullet Train – Trainer Henry Cecil's haggard yet elfin features make him look like racing's answer to Keith Richards though in truth his rollercoaster ride of a career has more in common with Johnny Cash. His own Father Time taught us last year that simply having a fantastic name is no guarantee of heroism but Bullet Train may yet live up to his mighty moniker and make Epsom the latest stop on Cecil's railroad to redemption. The horse lying second had a fatal injury when he won his trial at Lingfield but he had them strung out and struggling well before then and could out stay the opposition tomorrow.




Rewilding – Won nicely at Goodwood on his only British start and supplemented for this race at a cost of £75,000. Stable jock Frankie Dettori is up top for this and has been banging in the winners at a phenomenal rate in the last fortnight. Has plenty of scope to improve.

CONCLUSION: Bullet Train will be the one they have to pass but Jan Vermeer should take this from Rewilding to end O’Brien’s Derby drought.

1. Jan Vermeer
2. Rewilding
3. Bullet Train

Grand National Hopefuls

Cheltenham maybe the high water mark of the jumps season for committed fans of the game but there can be few areas of life where the 'once a year' dilettante gets such a comprehensive bang for their buck as in racing's Grand National. No race captures the nation's imagination like the National at Aintree and its not hard to see why. The marathon trip of 4 miles and 4 furlongs is a test without parallel. A biblical storm of flashing whips, flying sod and thunderous waves of horseflesh crashing against 30 fences of daunting spruce.


In the eery calm of the hours before the off homes across the nation ring to the sounds of enthusiastic and baseless conjecture. The papers are spread out on the table, cups of tea are being sipped and the search for a needle of choice in this almighty haystack of a race has begun.


For such an unusual race the form book is of only limited value. If you wish to delve into it strong form over 3 and a half miles +, previous Aintree steeple chasing experience and an affinity with the predicted good to soft ground will probably form a nice basis for a selection. Or if you prefer pick one with nice name and a pretty face. Personally I like to back a few in the race with a combination of looks and substance (because being out the contest at the very first fence is too much to bare) and will be having a few quid win and place on all of my selections.

With most bookies offering five places for your each way money on the day itself here's 5 likely lads who I fancy to fill the places.


Big Fella Thanks (best price 8/1)

Better off with the handicapper than when finishing 6th in last year's race despite being relatively young and naive. The sublimely gifted Ruby Walsh knows how to ride a National winner and opts for him over stablemate Tricky Trickster (himself a leading fancy before a poor run in the Cheltenham gold cup) and who are we to argue with 'the softest wrists in racing' ? The 8/1 generally available is not an attractive price in such an extreme race but we must remember: value doesn't pay the rent, that's what winners are for.

Black Appalachi (best price 14/1)

My ante-post pick for last year's race, I still choke on my Guiness when remembering the way he fell, jumping at shadows when leading so impressively. Trainer Dessie Hughes will have him cherry-ripe for the race after a low key preparation and last year's pilot Denis O'Regan is keeping the faith. If jockey and horse keep their concentration as well he'll go very close.

Cerium (best price 66/1)

Finished ahead of Big Fella Thanks last year and gets an even lighter weight this year (so light in fact that he needs a couple of competitors to drop out before he's guaranteed a place). He ran into 5th last year and it was later discovered that he'd sustained a crack to the skull half way round making his performance tremendously heroic whilst offering the giddy promise of better this year.

Eric's Charm (best price 50/1)

What's to like about a veteran performer taking in his first National at the tender age of 12? A Sandown win in December over a stamina sapping 3m 5f reads nicely in the form book and looks even sweeter when you see Nigel Twiston Davies' big race fancy Irish Raptor well beaten in fifth. The boy Eric will jump nicely and stay the distance, not too bad for a 50/1 shot hmm?

Mon Mome (best price 11/1)

Like many others I didn't know Mon Mome from your Mome when he gave Liam Treadwell an armchair ride to victory in last year's running but Venetia Williams' horse has subsequently proved his class in no uncertain terms when finishing third in this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup. He's got 7lbs more weight on his back this year but has clearly improved beyond the seven lengths that that supposedly equates to.

NB: Tricky Trickster (best price 16/1)

A galaxy sized Nota Benae must be Tricky Trickster. This horse will undoubtedly carry the £1 e/w bets of a fair percentage of the nation's once a year child gamblers on his back thanks to his Dick Dastardly-esque moniker but makes a reasonably shrewd value bet. He was all the rage for this race before a below par run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but the team behind him were never going to push the horse too hard as this has been his target all year. He's the race's forgotten horse but I urge you, forget him at your peril.

Good Luck x

A Gambler's Guide to the East Coast Mainline

Polish Ecstasy tend to let a gambler’s attitude pervade most aspects of life, whether this be staying in bed until the last possible moment (and beyond) before being massively late for work or taking death defying risks as we leap through closing doors and speed through red lights on the daily commute.

In the first of these columns, which are gambler’s guides to everyday life we’re going to address travelling on the train and principally the Peterborough to London, East Coast Mainline route.

***

The leaden poetry inherent as the driver intones “St Neots... Sandy... Biggleswade...Stevenage... Potter’s Bar”; the oceans that would swell and recede season by season on the flood plains between Ely and March, the sense of leaving behind places you’ll never ever know; there is a mundane beauty to travelling between Britain’s big cities by train.



As the carriages wait on the outskirts of forgotten towns and cities or trundle across the fields between, the passenger is left to gaze out into the middle distance somewhere between the scenery and their own reflection. Needless to say, these pleasurable moments of disengagement are all too often interrupted by hair gel slicked provincial teenagers - all Breezers, nasal voices and cheap aftershave; gales of boozy laughter from toxic hen parties, banal conversations conducted at hurricane volume, persistent coughs, roaming stenches, lonely perverts or the silent threat of shark-eyed psychopaths but somehow they abide in the gaps between.

Many other grave assaults on the senses face the travelling man on his way across the country but none inspire greater feelings of helplessness and impotent rage than the dreaded site of the ticket inspector emerging through the doors at the other end of the carriage.

As a child travelling with my parents I‘d always felt a twinge of annoyance when arriving at the end of a journey, unchecked ticket in hand, knowing that we could have got away with it. Later, having begun criss-crossing the country’s railway networks under my own steam during my faltering adolescence, the nebulous morality issues surrounding paying my fare began to crystallise - like the abundance of jelly in a British Rail pork pie - around one thing: the crushing effect it had on my already sparse pocket money. Seeds of resentment were sewn.



The years passed with the haircuts, a brief trist with the Ministry of Sound's 'Ibiza Annual' and various other misguided obsessions and love affairs (Kimberley Stiff, the elusive and ultimately treacherous Carol) came and went and in the autumn off 2002 I left for university. During the fallow weekends I would often find myself travelling home for band practises or to London on the trail of The Libertines. Feelings of overwhelming freedom abounded, all wrapped up in warm beer, blue smoke*, and the songs of ‘Up The Bracket’.

As my visits to the capital became more common the seed of disobedience that had formed in my childish breast began to flower and I would take my ticketless chances with more or less unhindered success on the route operated formerly by WAGN between Peterborough and London, all the time gaining knowledge and expertise. It is with these fond memories in mind (as well as mounting consternation at constantly rising ticket prices and their ever more abstract relation to increases in service quality and reliability) that I hope to give the gift of worry free travel that only an extra thirty quid in your sky rocket or a near failsafe excuse system can bring, with the low down on how to minimise fares along this well worn route.

*Not Crack.

Disclaimer: Polish Ecstasy does not condone fraudulent or naughty behaviour in any fashion whatsoever.

***

For those of you unfamiliar with the route in question it is important to remember ticket inspectors travel infrequently up and down the line so it’s always necessary to keep an eye out for them. Anecdotally speaking, the amount of times you bump into one and are forced to part with some cash tends to be a sufficiently low percentage of total trips to recommend a policy of blanket free travelling. The trick is to minimise the damage when you are caught and the best way to do this is to remember the last station you passed so that you can claim to have got on there. It is necessary to know which stations do not use ticket barriers (make a reference to the check-list below) as it is perfectly plausible that you may have had to run to catch the train and not had time to visit the machine.

***

Check List

• Peterborough - Guards on exits at random times
  
  
• Huntingdon - Barriers on Northbound platform
  
  
• St Neots - No reliable data
  
  
• Sandy - No barriers,
  
  
• Biggleswade - No barriers
  
  
• Arlesey - No barriers
  
  
• Hitchin - Barriers
  
  
• Welwyn North - No barriers
  
  
• Welwyn Garden City -Barriers
  
  
• Stevenage -Barriers
  
  
• Potters Bar - No reliable data, barriers expected
  
  
• Finsbury Park - No barriers
  
  
• Kings Cross - No barriers, Guards on exits at random times
  

Notes.

* Getting off at Finsbury Park will save you trouble as well as time at the London end more often than not.

* Often Ticket Inspectors seem to swoop at Huntingdon.

* Stevenage is a shit hole.

Good Luck.

Postcards from the Provinces: #2 Lovers' Ruin

Have you ever been listening to a song and have had to turn it off because it evokes a memory or an emotion which turns your stomach, gets stuck in your throat or kicks you in the balls, leaving you either wanting to cry, or hold your head in embarrassed shame. I have, and it's almost always related to a girl.

It dawned on me that this would an interesting subject to write about. So many songs have been ruined for me by the women I've know, loved and still love. This article is going to look at songs which have been desecrated by the memory attached to them, etched by ghosts of girlfriends past and present.

1. 'I’m Like a Bird' by Nelly Furtado:

I’m like a bird isn’t a song that I listen to by choice, I’d say it is just one of those songs you occasionally hear on the radio, or see the video on a music channel now and then. However without fail, each time I hear Miss Futardo’s smash hit ode to commitment issues I can’t help thinking about the night I lost my virginity. I’m not even sure to this day whether I lost it or, quite literally, misplaced it. ‘It’ being my penis.

I was a late starter in life; everything I did was prolonged or put off, usually because I was scared to face challenges thrown at me. I’m the person who’s going to do the job tomorrow rather than today and like everything else, girls were no exception. However there always comes the day when you have to get the job done, even when you’re desperate to do anything thing else other than what you have to face. My first kiss was one of these occasions, I’d attempted everything to get out of it even sabotage.By stopping off at MacDonald’s and loading up on double cheese burgers, I was convinced that the overwhelming stench of onions and fear would send the girl packing, but no. When I arrived on the date, I found to my horror that Denise was keener than ever. As we walked through the park Denise would sporadically squeeze my arse, I couldn’t help but blush. She was a crafty one, I thought, as she guided me round a corner into a pretty sunken garden full of ornate foliage. We stopped and without warning she'd clamped onto my face, it was horrible-her tongue whirled around in my head like fish in its final death throws. 'When will it stop' is all I could think, and then like the eye of a storm it was calm again. I never saw Denise after that day. Thank god.




Soon after Denise I started dating a girl called Pia, and happily for me we made it through our first kiss unscathed, no dead fish moments, but the relationship was starting to move forward, we were heading for unchartered territory, our love was about to get physical and frankly I was shitting myself over the prospect of getting my portions. There was clearly so much that could go wrong, she could see my penis and laugh at it. I could discover that I don’t like sex and realise that I was in fact a repressed homosexual. I could just cum down my leg before I got it anywhere near the Holy Grail. The anticipation was staring to take its toll on me.

The much planned night was upon us. I had managed to get my mum out of the house by telling her that the two of us wanted to celebrate our three week anniversary, this was true, but what we really wanted was to unshackle ourselves from the oppressive constraint of our virginity. So at sevenish Pia knocked at the front door we looked at each other like we were complete strangers and I suppose that's what we were...tonight was all about the sex and neither of us had a clue.

We started kissing as soon as she came in the door, she was of the let's get this out of the way school of thought, while I being a serial procrastinator decided to slow it down and watch some telly first. We watched MTV for a while, well I say watched, it was actually listening-we were kissing in that manic manner that teenagers do, as if you were to stop the other person would disappear.She grabbed my hand, as 'It Wasn’t Me' by Shaggy started to play on the telly, I can remember the unbelievable sense of impending doom as she dragged me up from the settee and said “Let’s go upstairs.”


We got to the bedroom and all I can remember is Pia lying there naked while I left the room to put on a condom, god knows what she thought I was doing, I didn’t. I returned to the room and it started. We rolled around like two worms wrestling, and I was pretty happy up with the way it was going, I felt like I was passing the ‘he’s definitely not a virgin test’. Then The moment that seemed to trigger my downfall occurred, Furtado started to pollute the house as Pia asked if this was my first time. ‘How does she know?’ I asked myself, but I later realised I was probably humping her leg.Of course I didn’t think this was the time to admit to being a virgin, I don’t know where it came from but I started listing mythical women I’d slept with they all had ridiculous names like Tallulah, Witney and Trixie, I might as well have told her that she was fucking Slim Goody Peterborough's finest pimp. Why couldn't I say Sarah, Helen anything but Trixie.

I’ve learnt now that it's never a good idea to mention other women while in the throes of sexual passion with another lady. It isn’t a common foreplay technique, and there's a reason for that. Girls are touchy. In an attempt to shut me up she grabbed my penis, it was happening.

‘Your faith in me brings me to tears/Even after all these years.’

The fear took hold of me, it was happening. I was waving goodbye to the age of innocence I WAS BECOMING A MAN! but as the song swelled into to another chorus my solider lay down and died. 'God no, why now? This has never happened to me when I was practicing.' I thought as I attempted to give him a helping hand.

Pia was quite comforting over the whole situation trying to get the old boy to have one last fight at it, but her efforts were to no avail. She even suggested taking the dog out for a walk and that's not even a dick based euphemism. I think once you start discussing dog walking the moment has passed, consigned to the history books as a failure.

It's not all doom and gloom because later that week I finally got the job done, but that night will always be known as ‘Flop and Fear’. A term first coined by young Thomas Reynolds to explain similar lonely travails. I drove Pia home that night with a complete sense of humiliation; we didn't really talk much on the way to her house. 'I'm Like a Bird' started to play on the radio and I wanted to kill myself. Luckily I can laugh about it now, but whenever I hear that song I just cringe...

I still don't know if I lost my virginity that night.

* (Joke originally attributed to unknown comedian, Norwich, 2004 - editor)

Oliver Jakeman.

Saturday's Big Race Preview: 15:05 Racing Post Chase Kempton

Hello again my friends. Let's take a look forward to what will, weather permitting, be this Saturday’s big handicap chase.

There are some strong trends in existence which I found on the excellent website http://www.racecaller.com/ , an invaluable resource for big race trends. Monday’s forfeits are in and we are left with a 16 string field to mitigate or obliterate.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse which is...

· Aged 6 to 8, (8 year olds in particular have won five of the last ten runnings)

· Carrying 10-12+ (9/10 recent winners, 4 being top weight)

· Officially rated 143 or higher

· Won last time out (9/10 recent winners)

· Run in 2 to 4 chases this season

· Won or placed in a listed or graded chase

· Won over 2M 5F+

· Course winner

· Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls

· Priced 10/1 or below (10/10 recent winners)

In the light of the fairly emphatic looking starting price trend we’ll have a look at those horses who have lithely limboed their way under the 10/1 bar

Nacarat – Ante-post favourite for the race, Nacarat certainly didn’t have a horse of the quality of Madison Du Berlais to beat when taking last year’s renewal by 9 lengths from Possol but is clearly not a million miles away in terms of class after finshing fourth in the King George over C&D at Christmas. Will like the going and must surely come very close again.



Fistral Beach – A serial silver medallist before finally scoring over 2miles 4 and a half furlongs on the Kempton turf last time out. Trained by Paul Nicholls, he will have the incomparable Ruby Walsh on board. Strikingly he will be in receipt of over two stone (out of the weights at the moment) from Madison Du Berlais so could be a threat though forging out over a 3 mile trip for the first time on the likely soft ground could be a tough assignment. Best watched at the price, though some might say you should wait to hear Paul Nicholls’ feelings in Saturday’s Racing Post, then send your money in the opposite direction!

Kilcrea Castle - Another who has yet to prove he can see out the trip, though affirmative noises have come from trainer Emma Lavelle on the subject. He has been the subject of a large gamble already in to 13/2 from 16/1, finished close behind the Sawyer and Miss Mitch in his first race in England recently and is one of the three in Saturday's race (along with Razor Royale and Kilcrea Castle) who fall under the strong trend for 8 year old winners. Fancied to have a strong chance.

Possol - A doubt for the race due to the expected soft ground, Possol has been at his most effective this season and recieves plenty of weight from Nacarat, his conqueror in last year's running. Definite claims should the going improve but one to hold fire on until the day.


Madison Du Berlais -The class horse in the race, he has the form edge around Kempton over Nacarat and therefore Possol. His performance last time at Cheltenham can be tippexed as the horse has shown that he just doesn’t get on with the stamina test at the Cotswolds track, running consistently below his best there. The record top weights hold in the last ten runnings of this race soothes some of the worries over whether he can give away so many lbs. He seems an each way steal at the 10s which are currently available.

Miss Mitch - Has recently beaten other contenders like Kilcrea Castle and will one lb better off with him here though one win in 9 on soft ground seems to suggest that she may find it tough come saturday.

Conclusion

Nacarat and Madison du Berlais stand out in terms of ratings and weighiproven ability in high class races and as that seems to have been a consistent winning profile for this race they are preferred with a heavy heart to Kilcrea Castle who may get a little side bet on the day.

Looking at our short list its a no-brainer for me value-wise and I'll back MADISON DU BERLAIS each way at double the price of Nacarat.

Saturday's Globe Trotting Football Accumulators brought to you by Sun Tzu

I've been having a look at the football this Saturday and there seem to be a plethora of likely bets on Saturday which I might attack in the kind of intricately tactical web of doubles, trebles and accumulators that Sun Tzu (author of the go to book for philosophical footballers such as Aston Villa's Nigel Reo-Coker) might have used to obliterate the bookmaking syndicates of ancient China.

The masterful Zulte Waregem squad are hoping to "a real fucking number" on SK Roselare on the 20th according to dashingly named striker Teddy Chevalier.

I’m sure there are plenty more diamonds to be found in the Dutch, Greek, Cypriot and Turkish rough on Sunday too! Let me know what you think of them, any you feel I’ve missed etc. Also what do you think of the chances of the big 2 in Spain this weekend?

You can find all these and more on Betfair.


Germany

Nurnberg v B Munich*

England

Wolves v Chelsea* (this one seems quite dodgy, especially in light of Chelsea’s CL 2nd round match next week)

Nottingham Forest* v Middlesbrough
Newcastle* v Preston
Cardiff* v Barnsley

Swindon* v Carlisle
Norwich* v Southampton
Colchester* v Oldham

Rochdale* v Dag and Red

Possible value upsets

Arsenal v Sunderland*
Celtic v Dundee*

Austria

FK Austria Wien* v SK Austria Karnten

Belgium

Zulte-Waregem* v Roeselare

Italy

Inter* v Sampdoria

From the frontline...betting shop wisdom # 2: AP McCoy’s "Shangri-Las"

The man they have come to know simply as ‘Champ’ can be a divisive figure among followers of jumps racing . Known for banging home more winners than any other jockey, AP McCoy has become something of an exalted figure in the sport, with few famous faces keen to do anything besides pay lip-service to his undoubtedly immense will to win.

There are however those among the punting fraternity who would regard AP as a 'grinder' who while most certainly a highly skilled horseman, does not have the cultured approach of Ruby Walsh. This may be something to do with the fact that his reputation is not one born out of profitability. It has been a decade after all, since he finished a season in the black when backed in each race to a one pound stake.


AP is undoubtedly a grinder, picking up wins at ‘lowly’ tracks up and down the roads of this sceptre isle but for the punter these victories in nothing races can keep you in Courvoisier till you’re old and grey if you know the tracks where he truly excels. South Wales’ new and highly thought of Ffos Las track is fast beginning to prove a Shangri-la for the ‘Champ’ and punters alike.


An overall record of 14 wins from 34 rides (41%) at the track yields a lovely + £18.54 strike rate but it’s when you narrow it down to his ‘Chase’ rides at the track that the real statistical truffle is unearthed.

From the 12 Chases he has contested at the Carmarthenshire course AP has been victorious on no fewer than 8 occasions delivering a 67% strike rate which would leave you £20.88 in profit if you’d staked a pound on each of the races. It may be early days for Ffos Las but in AP McCoy, its clear we have already found our preferred pilot.

Grind out some nice dough backing A.P McCoy in Chases at Ffos Las