Get ready for a party with Blue Bunting

This Saturday sees the 235th running of Britain’s oldest classic, The St Leger. The race has been run in some form every year since 1776 with but a single exception in (1939) and fittingly for a such an enduring spectacle the focus is squarely on which horse has the stamina to last the distance.

The 1 mile 6 furlong trip represents a journey into the unknown for these three year old fillies and colts, most of whom will not have competed beyond 1 mile and four furlongs in their young lives.


As Town Moor holds its collective breath those who have stood the pace as far as the two furlong pole will settle down to battle out the finish. Horse and jockey forge together on into the void. A journey that began with three horses three hundred years ago through centuries of thoroughbred breeding has come to this latest inescapable moment. Onwards, with every hoof beat, into this unknown...

Sir Michael Stoute’s Sea Moon rocketed to favouritism for the season’s final British classic after a demolition job on the Great Voltiguer at York last time.

His performance was beguiling as he put his rivals (including Irish Derby second Seville) to the sword, running out an easy winner. Was the suicidal early pace of the O'Brien pacemaker to blame in leaving his endurance bred rivals out on their feet at the business end of the race? Possibly. With fellow Leger hope Namibian underperforming and subsequently found to have colic what is the worth of the form?

Seville was well behind Masked Marvel in the Derby at Epsom so could seemingly have a fair bit to find when he reopposes with John Gosden’s charge and the horse that one narrowly beat earlier in the season at Newbury, Census. Having been there or there abouts in a lot of group ones but has never had quite the ability to get his head in front. With the traditional Coolmore peloton conspicious by their absence he will be left to duke it out solo along way from home on saturday.

The horse that stands out is for me is Blue Bunting. What I would give to be holding on to a 6/1 docket with this young lady's name on it!

If you put your faith in omens then you will pleased to know that she takes her name from Cyanocompsa parellina, a small bird native to Latin America. Not an omen you say?! Well... back to remedial orthnithology for you for they are sexually dimorphic creatures. Despite the name only males of the species have a deep blue plummage in common with the Godolphin silks. Blue Bunting sees no reason to accept that because of her gender she may not bear that stratospheric blue. She will have whatever the colts have and more, she is emancipated.


One of the most consistent horses around this year having already won three group ones , she’s still 4/1 with most layers and looks like a smashing little bet to nothing for the each way thieves.

In the last decade half of the small number of fillies entered in the race have placed and the 3lbs weight allowance they receive has all the more time to aid them over a longer trip.

Blue Bunting is bred for stamina but had enough toe to steal this seasons 1000 Guineas and with 5 time St Leger winning pilot Frankie Dettori in the stirrups (the same man who has ridden her to three G1 success and one ignominious failure this season) she's certain to make the frame if not fly to victory.

VERDICT: BLUE BUNTING E/W

For your Exacta:

1. Blue Bunting

2. Census

3. Masked Marvel

Big Race Preview: Racing Post Chase, Kempton Park: Tatenen - Renaissance Horse

Hello there Punters,

Whilst I cannot tell you where I have been it's sufficient for you to know that I'm now back to guide your hands and hearts . All roads lead to Prestbury Park at this time of year but let's look away from Cheltenham for a moment and lower our gaze upon Kempton and this weekend's Racing Post Chase where I have a selection

He doesn't meet all the trends for Saturday's big race and I wouldn't advise mortgaging the farm on the lad but I have a feeling Tatenen will more than do himself justice and could go in at 12/1.

Tatenen began his career in late 2007 as a promising young 2 miler but after initial successes began slipping down the rungs of the chasing ladder. He suffered the odd fall and unseated his rider on a few occaisions. Disappointment after disappointment has seen him moved on three times during his career and he has come to rest at the small West Sussex operation run by Richard Rowe. Here it seems he has found some respite from the demons that were weighing him down.

A frivolous (and miniscule) wager went in for me recently when he landed odds of 20/1in a Handicap at Ascot back in January. My reasoning for backing him that day(the outsider in that race) was that surely he had to reproduce some of his early form eventually and so it proved as he won more or less as he pleased from hardy handicappers such as The Sawyer, Edgbriar and Breedsbreeze.

He looked a different animal and jumping convincingly on almost every occaision put his rivals to the sword to score by 16 lengths. He goes into saturday's race with plenty of potential to continue his rejuvenation and the step up in trip may even bring further improvement.

I for one would thoroughly enjoy seeing Tatenen continue his renaissance.

Somewhere over the Rainbow...

Today looks a good chance to charge your betting banks for the weekend. Two likely looking novice chases at Newbury featuring...

13:35 Finian’s Rainbow – Likely to go off odds-on largely due to the amount of hype coming out of Seven Barrows. Nicky Henderson and regular work-rider Barry Geraghty have been enthusing about his affinity for the larger obstacles for a while now. Whether you wish to take 8/13 about him winning is debateable and he faces two useful types here but his win over course and distance as a hurdler should stand him in good stead here.

15:15 Tell Massini - Trainer said he didn’t like the track last time nonetheless he won well enough on his chase debut. He faces some useful sorts this time in Aiteenthirtythree and Be There In Five (point to point winners yet to race under rules) in what looks a trappy affair but Newbury is a galloping track which looks bound to suit and this race should see continued improvement.

In all likelihood both will go off shorter than they should but taking these in a singles doubles combo weighted towards Tell Massini should see you in profit x

The beginings of a new campaign

At long last the flat season is drawing to a close and with the advent of this weekend’s Charlie Hall Chase the jumps season proper will be underway. As the fogs roll down over Punchestown and the damp gets into the late October air in Lambourn gamin young hurdlers and venerable steeplechasers alike have long since begun to sense that the summer is but a memory and the time to prove themselves anew is at hand.

Just around the corner Cheltenham’s Open Meeting neatly foreshadows the great culmination towards which the modern jumps season builds. All roads lead to the festival or so the ‘Racing for Change’ marketing men would have us believe and as usual it is against the ticking of this clock that every hoof beat is measured. With this in mind we’ll take a look over the coming weeks at various aspects of the coming campaign.



First up, we peer downwards through our crescent reading glasses at the portents and omens for chasing’s blue ribband event, the Cheltenham Gold Cup...


The powers that be...

With both Kauto Star and Denman entering their eleventh years their pre-eminence in the staying chasers field will be questioned with increasing vigour this season. It has been some decades since an eleven year old won the Cheltenham show piece, yet together with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Imperial Commander (a ten year old) they are over a stone better on official ratings than the group of young pretenders that aim to be within snapping distances of their heels this term.

Kauto Star – At his supernatural best when destroying the field in the 2009 King George last season nevertheless highlighted that the apple of Ruby Walsh’s eye is not quite the same horse away from the Kempton track, when pipping Imperial Commander in a thoroughly debatable photo finish at Haydock and never looking like he was travelling well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. One senses that though he has the class to be untroubled by all but the very best at any track in Britain but this year a King George victory will define a successful season.

Denman – After last year’s rollercoaster season it’s difficult to know what to expect from Denman. His Hennessey win and Gold Cup second seem to suggest that he retains plenty of his formidable ability. Things don’t seem to be coming quite so easily to the Tank anymore.

Imperial Commander – Proved just how good he is around Cheltenham by exploding the Denman v Kauto hype surrounding the 2010 Gold Cup. Has a year on Paul Nicholls’ charges and can certainly make hay this term as there seems to be a season to wait before another generation of quality chasers emerge to challenge him.

The rest of the English...

Unusually there are several high quality second season chasers potentially on the Gold Cup scene but there are plenty of reasons (apart from the lack of toughness generally inherent in a graduating chasers) to have reservations about their chances. Of Nicky Henderson’s charges Punchestowns looks to lack the toughness to stay 3 miles plus around Cheltenham whilst Long Run is yet to display fluent enough jumping when questions are asked of his stamina (surely an experiment with a better jockey might shed some light on his true abilities). Indeed it may be the comparatively unheralded Burton Port who holds the biggest threat for the man from Seven Barrows, the RSA Chase 2nd surprised everybody with his progression last season and could well go on from there.

Elsewhere Weird Al, should he recover from the injury which cruelly put to death last year’s bookie busting festival accumulator might be an interesting proposition from a small yard and has already won twice at Prestbury Park. It would be reassuring for those who see him as a potential top level horse to see him pick up a win or two in large field races at 3 miles and beyond.

Somersby will progress for Henrietta Knight after looking for all the world like he needed further than the 2 miles he got in his races last season.

It maybe Planet of Sound who gets the closest of the English to the big three in his third season over the larger obstacles. Phillip Hobbs’s chaser improved to win the Punchestown Gold Cup (beating a sub-standard Denman) on his final start of last season but faces an uphill struggle to convince us that he can win at Cheltenham after his gutless Ryanair Chase flop in 2010.


Raiders from the Emerald Isle...

We saw arguably the most promising performance from a novice staying chaser last season when Weapons Amnesty confirmed his liking for the Cotswolds course with a strong victory in the RSA Chase, his second festival prize. Before trainer Charles Byrnes announced he be would out for the entire season through injury he would have been many a follower of the form’s idea of the most likely to bridge the gap to the big three.

Elsewhere the challenge from the across the Irish Sea looks nebulous at present, Joncol seems far too workman like whilst Cooldine who had a stop start season last term, may be further proof that winning an RSA, often such a gruelling race for a young chaser, may be less of boon to a horse’s long term prospects than one would expect given the fates of recent winners Denman, Weapons Amnesty and Trabolgan.

Pandorama is a horse that has been picking up plenty of wins in Ireland over the past two seasons only to miss the festival on both occasions. Noel Meade's gelding got home in front of Weapons Amnesty on his last run and if he returns well from his injury lay off could surprise a few people.


Wild Cards...
Another Paul Nicholls stable star currently third in some layers ante-post markets is 3mile hurdle titan Big Bucks. Let us not forget that he was in danger of serving it up to a future gold cup winner before falling at the business end of the Paddy Power Gold Cup won by Imperial Commander before returning to hurdles. Nicholls has never ruled out a return to chasing for him and the twelve to one currently available could begin to look silly if he takes to fences with more gusto a second time round.

Polish Ecstasy Verdict

Though the prices will not generally be earth shattering all the horses mentioned should win you a bit of money on their way to the festival in 2011.

It would be tremendous and certainly anything but a whimisical romance to see Big Bucks given another chance in this sphere, such has been his monopoly of staying hurdle prizes over the last two years but it seems by virtue of being younger than his rivals and more mature than the chasing pack that Imperial Commander may be the one to beat.

Dark Horse: Pandorama

Wagers: A nice little double at Epsom tonight

Hello brothers and sisters,

After the near brush with a juicy three figure payday last week* I thought you might like to hear about a couple of other little fancies running at Epsom Downs this evening.

With indoor scarf sporting topman-botherers JLS set to 'entertain' the assembled crowds as the racing finishes, all of tonight's protagonists will have that extra incentive to get their races put to bed in double quick time. Nonetheless there are two here I like to get home (and away from the clutches of the reputedly 'rapey' young Aston) faster than most tonight.

18:40: Brynfa Boy - Unlucky with how his last few races panned out, particularly when too keen due to a dawdling early pace at Ascot last time. Should get a much jauntier pace this time and Tony Culhane will be looking to get our lad's nose in front inside the final furlong. 4/1 at time of posting.

19:45: Mascarene - Sir Michael Stoute's only runner on the card is nicely bred and the step down in trip looks set to suit her down to the ground on breeding. 9/4 at time of posting.

BACKED: Singles and an each way double.

Something of punt then but hopefully one that will at least see our inital outlay secured and perhaps privde a little rocket fuel for weekend festivities.

* the patent paid £88.00 for its two winners out of three.

Derby Preview

Ah the Flat!

Juvenile horses; fitsome and bolshy as teenagers, prone to extravagant changes in mood, crises of confidence, physical eruptions and burgeonings. Above all horrendously frustrating to have any kind of investment in. Needless to say some horses, like some teenagers have everything you could ever dream of right there in their first flush of youth. These are the dreamboats and teen queens of each year’s classic generation.


At this early stage of the season all the punter has to help eke out his opinion on a race is one or two bits of form, stable gossip and the obligatory ‘glowing’ gallop report. We’ll need to plot a path clear of the whirlpools of hype that threaten to capsize our bets before they even reach the stalls. Saturday brings the Derby, my second favourite race of the flat season so we’ll set our sextants, attune our bullshit detectors and cut merrily into the swell.

Aidan O’Brien likes to take a banjo to many of the big races but he completely failed to hit the cow’s arse in last year’s Derby despite fielding six likely candidates. Again this year he goes in mob handed but the varied fates of the boy from Ballydoyle’s entries in recent days and weeks have caused ructions in the betting market. St Nicholas Abbey injured, Cape Blanco going to France, Jan Vermeer winning impressively in Ireland. All were right at the top of the betting and for the Derby this has particular significance.


Not once in the last ten years has the winner gone off at greater than 7/1 or from outside the first four in the betting. Of course trends are often liable to subverted in some daring new fashion but some, like the denim hot pant are never going to be away for too long. With a trend like the former it pays to wait until the day of the race but three that I like most from the first six (to allow for a bit of market movement at the time of posting are:

Jan Vermeer – A wide margin group 1 winner in France at 2 and won an average race well on his only other start this season. If he wasn’t a Ballydoyle horse he wouldn’t be 2/1 but being Johnny Murtagh’s ride of choice is a feather in his cap. The only one of the leading contenders to have form over another horse in the top half of the betting (Midas Touch) and will take all the beating.


Bullet Train – Trainer Henry Cecil's haggard yet elfin features make him look like racing's answer to Keith Richards though in truth his rollercoaster ride of a career has more in common with Johnny Cash. His own Father Time taught us last year that simply having a fantastic name is no guarantee of heroism but Bullet Train may yet live up to his mighty moniker and make Epsom the latest stop on Cecil's railroad to redemption. The horse lying second had a fatal injury when he won his trial at Lingfield but he had them strung out and struggling well before then and could out stay the opposition tomorrow.




Rewilding – Won nicely at Goodwood on his only British start and supplemented for this race at a cost of £75,000. Stable jock Frankie Dettori is up top for this and has been banging in the winners at a phenomenal rate in the last fortnight. Has plenty of scope to improve.

CONCLUSION: Bullet Train will be the one they have to pass but Jan Vermeer should take this from Rewilding to end O’Brien’s Derby drought.

1. Jan Vermeer
2. Rewilding
3. Bullet Train

Grand National Hopefuls

Cheltenham maybe the high water mark of the jumps season for committed fans of the game but there can be few areas of life where the 'once a year' dilettante gets such a comprehensive bang for their buck as in racing's Grand National. No race captures the nation's imagination like the National at Aintree and its not hard to see why. The marathon trip of 4 miles and 4 furlongs is a test without parallel. A biblical storm of flashing whips, flying sod and thunderous waves of horseflesh crashing against 30 fences of daunting spruce.


In the eery calm of the hours before the off homes across the nation ring to the sounds of enthusiastic and baseless conjecture. The papers are spread out on the table, cups of tea are being sipped and the search for a needle of choice in this almighty haystack of a race has begun.


For such an unusual race the form book is of only limited value. If you wish to delve into it strong form over 3 and a half miles +, previous Aintree steeple chasing experience and an affinity with the predicted good to soft ground will probably form a nice basis for a selection. Or if you prefer pick one with nice name and a pretty face. Personally I like to back a few in the race with a combination of looks and substance (because being out the contest at the very first fence is too much to bare) and will be having a few quid win and place on all of my selections.

With most bookies offering five places for your each way money on the day itself here's 5 likely lads who I fancy to fill the places.


Big Fella Thanks (best price 8/1)

Better off with the handicapper than when finishing 6th in last year's race despite being relatively young and naive. The sublimely gifted Ruby Walsh knows how to ride a National winner and opts for him over stablemate Tricky Trickster (himself a leading fancy before a poor run in the Cheltenham gold cup) and who are we to argue with 'the softest wrists in racing' ? The 8/1 generally available is not an attractive price in such an extreme race but we must remember: value doesn't pay the rent, that's what winners are for.

Black Appalachi (best price 14/1)

My ante-post pick for last year's race, I still choke on my Guiness when remembering the way he fell, jumping at shadows when leading so impressively. Trainer Dessie Hughes will have him cherry-ripe for the race after a low key preparation and last year's pilot Denis O'Regan is keeping the faith. If jockey and horse keep their concentration as well he'll go very close.

Cerium (best price 66/1)

Finished ahead of Big Fella Thanks last year and gets an even lighter weight this year (so light in fact that he needs a couple of competitors to drop out before he's guaranteed a place). He ran into 5th last year and it was later discovered that he'd sustained a crack to the skull half way round making his performance tremendously heroic whilst offering the giddy promise of better this year.

Eric's Charm (best price 50/1)

What's to like about a veteran performer taking in his first National at the tender age of 12? A Sandown win in December over a stamina sapping 3m 5f reads nicely in the form book and looks even sweeter when you see Nigel Twiston Davies' big race fancy Irish Raptor well beaten in fifth. The boy Eric will jump nicely and stay the distance, not too bad for a 50/1 shot hmm?

Mon Mome (best price 11/1)

Like many others I didn't know Mon Mome from your Mome when he gave Liam Treadwell an armchair ride to victory in last year's running but Venetia Williams' horse has subsequently proved his class in no uncertain terms when finishing third in this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup. He's got 7lbs more weight on his back this year but has clearly improved beyond the seven lengths that that supposedly equates to.

NB: Tricky Trickster (best price 16/1)

A galaxy sized Nota Benae must be Tricky Trickster. This horse will undoubtedly carry the £1 e/w bets of a fair percentage of the nation's once a year child gamblers on his back thanks to his Dick Dastardly-esque moniker but makes a reasonably shrewd value bet. He was all the rage for this race before a below par run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but the team behind him were never going to push the horse too hard as this has been his target all year. He's the race's forgotten horse but I urge you, forget him at your peril.

Good Luck x

Saturday's Big Race Preview: 15:05 Racing Post Chase Kempton

Hello again my friends. Let's take a look forward to what will, weather permitting, be this Saturday’s big handicap chase.

There are some strong trends in existence which I found on the excellent website http://www.racecaller.com/ , an invaluable resource for big race trends. Monday’s forfeits are in and we are left with a 16 string field to mitigate or obliterate.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse which is...

· Aged 6 to 8, (8 year olds in particular have won five of the last ten runnings)

· Carrying 10-12+ (9/10 recent winners, 4 being top weight)

· Officially rated 143 or higher

· Won last time out (9/10 recent winners)

· Run in 2 to 4 chases this season

· Won or placed in a listed or graded chase

· Won over 2M 5F+

· Course winner

· Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls

· Priced 10/1 or below (10/10 recent winners)

In the light of the fairly emphatic looking starting price trend we’ll have a look at those horses who have lithely limboed their way under the 10/1 bar

Nacarat – Ante-post favourite for the race, Nacarat certainly didn’t have a horse of the quality of Madison Du Berlais to beat when taking last year’s renewal by 9 lengths from Possol but is clearly not a million miles away in terms of class after finshing fourth in the King George over C&D at Christmas. Will like the going and must surely come very close again.



Fistral Beach – A serial silver medallist before finally scoring over 2miles 4 and a half furlongs on the Kempton turf last time out. Trained by Paul Nicholls, he will have the incomparable Ruby Walsh on board. Strikingly he will be in receipt of over two stone (out of the weights at the moment) from Madison Du Berlais so could be a threat though forging out over a 3 mile trip for the first time on the likely soft ground could be a tough assignment. Best watched at the price, though some might say you should wait to hear Paul Nicholls’ feelings in Saturday’s Racing Post, then send your money in the opposite direction!

Kilcrea Castle - Another who has yet to prove he can see out the trip, though affirmative noises have come from trainer Emma Lavelle on the subject. He has been the subject of a large gamble already in to 13/2 from 16/1, finished close behind the Sawyer and Miss Mitch in his first race in England recently and is one of the three in Saturday's race (along with Razor Royale and Kilcrea Castle) who fall under the strong trend for 8 year old winners. Fancied to have a strong chance.

Possol - A doubt for the race due to the expected soft ground, Possol has been at his most effective this season and recieves plenty of weight from Nacarat, his conqueror in last year's running. Definite claims should the going improve but one to hold fire on until the day.


Madison Du Berlais -The class horse in the race, he has the form edge around Kempton over Nacarat and therefore Possol. His performance last time at Cheltenham can be tippexed as the horse has shown that he just doesn’t get on with the stamina test at the Cotswolds track, running consistently below his best there. The record top weights hold in the last ten runnings of this race soothes some of the worries over whether he can give away so many lbs. He seems an each way steal at the 10s which are currently available.

Miss Mitch - Has recently beaten other contenders like Kilcrea Castle and will one lb better off with him here though one win in 9 on soft ground seems to suggest that she may find it tough come saturday.

Conclusion

Nacarat and Madison du Berlais stand out in terms of ratings and weighiproven ability in high class races and as that seems to have been a consistent winning profile for this race they are preferred with a heavy heart to Kilcrea Castle who may get a little side bet on the day.

Looking at our short list its a no-brainer for me value-wise and I'll back MADISON DU BERLAIS each way at double the price of Nacarat.

Saturday's Globe Trotting Football Accumulators brought to you by Sun Tzu

I've been having a look at the football this Saturday and there seem to be a plethora of likely bets on Saturday which I might attack in the kind of intricately tactical web of doubles, trebles and accumulators that Sun Tzu (author of the go to book for philosophical footballers such as Aston Villa's Nigel Reo-Coker) might have used to obliterate the bookmaking syndicates of ancient China.

The masterful Zulte Waregem squad are hoping to "a real fucking number" on SK Roselare on the 20th according to dashingly named striker Teddy Chevalier.

I’m sure there are plenty more diamonds to be found in the Dutch, Greek, Cypriot and Turkish rough on Sunday too! Let me know what you think of them, any you feel I’ve missed etc. Also what do you think of the chances of the big 2 in Spain this weekend?

You can find all these and more on Betfair.


Germany

Nurnberg v B Munich*

England

Wolves v Chelsea* (this one seems quite dodgy, especially in light of Chelsea’s CL 2nd round match next week)

Nottingham Forest* v Middlesbrough
Newcastle* v Preston
Cardiff* v Barnsley

Swindon* v Carlisle
Norwich* v Southampton
Colchester* v Oldham

Rochdale* v Dag and Red

Possible value upsets

Arsenal v Sunderland*
Celtic v Dundee*

Austria

FK Austria Wien* v SK Austria Karnten

Belgium

Zulte-Waregem* v Roeselare

Italy

Inter* v Sampdoria

From the frontline...betting shop wisdom # 2: AP McCoy’s "Shangri-Las"

The man they have come to know simply as ‘Champ’ can be a divisive figure among followers of jumps racing . Known for banging home more winners than any other jockey, AP McCoy has become something of an exalted figure in the sport, with few famous faces keen to do anything besides pay lip-service to his undoubtedly immense will to win.

There are however those among the punting fraternity who would regard AP as a 'grinder' who while most certainly a highly skilled horseman, does not have the cultured approach of Ruby Walsh. This may be something to do with the fact that his reputation is not one born out of profitability. It has been a decade after all, since he finished a season in the black when backed in each race to a one pound stake.


AP is undoubtedly a grinder, picking up wins at ‘lowly’ tracks up and down the roads of this sceptre isle but for the punter these victories in nothing races can keep you in Courvoisier till you’re old and grey if you know the tracks where he truly excels. South Wales’ new and highly thought of Ffos Las track is fast beginning to prove a Shangri-la for the ‘Champ’ and punters alike.


An overall record of 14 wins from 34 rides (41%) at the track yields a lovely + £18.54 strike rate but it’s when you narrow it down to his ‘Chase’ rides at the track that the real statistical truffle is unearthed.

From the 12 Chases he has contested at the Carmarthenshire course AP has been victorious on no fewer than 8 occasions delivering a 67% strike rate which would leave you £20.88 in profit if you’d staked a pound on each of the races. It may be early days for Ffos Las but in AP McCoy, its clear we have already found our preferred pilot.

Grind out some nice dough backing A.P McCoy in Chases at Ffos Las

Towards Cheltenham - The Champion Hurdle Picture

As January draws to a close it seems as good time as any to assess the chances of the key runners in what is often my favourite championship race at the festival, The Champion Hurdle.

With the January jumping calendar ravaged by snow and frost opportunities to see the principals add substance to their claims have been thin on the ground, trainers playing roulette with the fixture list in search of prep runs for their charges. Add to that the fact that the worth of last year’s Champion Hurdle form seems to be getting knocked about and one is left with a race that is very difficult to fathom.

The weekend of the 29th of January saw races traditionally regarded as fair trials for Cheltenham’s Tuesday showpiece go ahead at Haydock and Leopardstown and served to offer form lines (some comprehensive, some more tenuous) which unite many of the horses at the business end of the ante-post markets for the race yielding for two horses who have particularly bold claims.

After an unspectacular fourth of four in Saturday’s Haydock race that also featured Medermit and Punjabi, a yardstick of sorts has finally arrived in the steady shape of Cape Tribulation, who’s form is intertwined with the runners we’ll be looking at. Over an up and down career he seems to have fared best over distances of 2 miles 4 furlongs and upwards. Hopefully observing how the leading contenders for Champion Hurdle glory fared against him this season will allow us to gain a better handle on where they all stand in the pecking order.


Binocular – The Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle at the end of November saw several Champion Hurdle prospects line up. Binocular made a poor showing when finishing 5th, 7 lengths behind Go Native and 1 and a half adrift of Solwhit. He got a lot closer to that day’s victor when the two re-opposed in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, going down by only a length and a quarter.

Go Native –. He had already had a warm-up run before his Fighting Fifth success and beat a woefully under par Binocular and a Solwhit who was in need of his first run of the season. He beat Cape Tribulation (4th) by 6 and quarter lengths in the Christmas Hurdle in Kempton’s Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle over the 2 mile Champion Hurdle trip.

Zaynar – Not remotely pushed when recording an unspectacular win from Cape Tribulation by 6 Lengths in a longer 2 mile 4 furlong race at Cheltenham in December. It seems that Nicky Henderson is keeping him firmly away from the other leading lights between now and the festival so we are left with Cape Tribulation as the only link to the other players. CT trailed the winner by the same distance in both his race race with Zaynar (2m4f) and Go Native (2m).

Punjabi – Came home 2 lengths in front of Cape Tribulation when himself a 4 length 2nd to Medermit in the sportingbet.com Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock on Saturday.

Celestial Halo – Finished 3 Lengths up on Medermit in the Boylesports International that was won by Khyber Kim in December. He had no answer when under pressure beaten 9 lengths into fourth by Solwhit at Leopardstown over the weekend though the heavy ground may have also been partially to blame.

Solwhit – Clearly needed the run when beaten 3 and a half lengths by Go Native in The Fighting Fifth and responded by recording 2 victories in Ireland since then. His victory in Leopardstown at the weekend left Celestial Halo trailing in his wake on the heavy ground, some 9 lengths behind.

Khyber Kim – Has beaten Medermit into 3rd twice over Champion Hurdle course and distance this season. In the second of those races he came from last to first in a taking manner passing Celestial Halo on his way to the line.

Medermit – Another solid form yardstick, Medermit announced himself in the Champion Hurdle Picture on Saturday beating reigning champ Punjabi by 4 lengths on Saturday. He has been a not too distant third twice behind Khyber Kim over Cheltenham C and D.

The Verdict

Confusion reigns! Cape Tribulation has taught us precious little, though to me it seems that as yardstick he shows Zaynar in a better light due to racing against him at what seems more like his ideal distance of 2 miles 4 furlongs. If sharing Paul Nicholls’ view we rule out Celestial Halo’s recent bad run in Ireland as a blip, then I keep coming back to to one horse... Nigel Twiston Davies’s massively improved Khyber Kym.

Having two wins at Cheltenham over the Champion Hurdle Trip already under his belt beating last year’s runner up and twice beating Medermit who has himself beaten the current champion in reasonable fitness I feel he has the pick of the form.


Zaynar and particularly Solwhit are two others who have sound claims but each has an unknown undermining them.

Q.Will Solwhit transfer his Irish form to England, and more particularly Cheltenham’s singular test of stamina?

Q. Does Zaynar have the turn of foot to withstand on-rushing hold-up types such as Khyber Kym and Go Native
over the final furlong of 2 mile trip which just might not be his optimum trip?



I reckon the form has worked out very well for Khyber Kym, so I will back him out Polish Ecstasy’s biscuit budget and sit back to dream of another madcap, last to first burst to Cheltenham glory.

Saturday Big Race Preview: The Ladbroke Hurdle 14:40 Ascot.

For our first ‘Saturday Big Race Review’ our focus falls on Ascot's 14:35, The Ladbroke Hurdle. A relatively young race, it has been dominated since its inception by Nicky Henderson and Pipe Family horses. It was won last yeat by Sentry Duty who went on to have more successes in large field handicaps and appeared in last season's Champion Hurdle.

As will become traditional we will look at the race from two perspectives: those of 'The Form' and Ten Year (or eight year in this case) Trends.

Form.

From a form perspective there seem to be two races which hold the key to a better understanding of this race.

Firstly, the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham which was won on soft ground by Khyber Kim from Harry Tricker on his seasonal debut. The form of that race was given an almighty boost at the weekend when the Twiston-Davies trained hurdler (Khyber Kim) came late to outstay Paul Nicholls Champion Hurdle Prospect (and odds on favourite) Celestial Halo in the Boylesports International Hurdle. With Alan King’s Medermit occupying third place the form has a strong look to it. Harry Tricker a five length second that day is the ante-post favourite for the Ladbroke currently trading at around 6/1.European Dream who finished 6th that day also re-opposes on Saturday.

Harry Tricker has raced many times already this season (so therefore undeniably race-fit) and was arguably well in with the weights that day giving the winner over a stone and 5lbs to European Dancer. Nonetheless he is still on favourable terms with many of the likely protagonists with the 3lb (weight off) claim of Jockey Andrew Glassonbury. Additionally he will certainly not mind the soft going that may arise at Ascot.

Greatwood Hurdle 2nd Harry Tricker

The second race is 3:15 at Newbury last Saturday, an arguably weaker affair won by Nicky Henderson’s Fairyland. Frontier Dancer (2), Dani’s Girl (5), Gee Dee Nen (7) and Henderson’s Know The Law (unseated rider) all re-oppose on Saturday. Second to Sixth finished in a heap five lengths behind the victor and give the form a somewhat muddy complexion though it is notable that it was Frontier Dancer’s first run of the season. The winner had raced several times already this autumn and Frontier Dancer, who by all accounts needed the run will be the horse to take from this race. The only note of warning I would sound is that he has no winning form in the book on going worse than good to soft and the sole win on good to soft came in low class affair at Warwick.

Other horses with strong form which doesn’t lend itself easily to comparison are Paul Nicholls’ top-weight Pepe Simo and John Jo O’Neill’s Get Me Out Of Here. The latter’s run in a Newbury hurdle identical to lasts Saturday’s (two days earlier) was taken in a ponderous time, fully ten seconds slower than the one won by Fairyland. As race times are arguably less of a guide in National Hunt racing he is unexposed and as such could be open to further improvement.


Trends

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 5 to 7
• Finished in the first 3 last time and posted their highest RPR
• Carrying 10-9+
• Officially rated 122 to 136
• Run no more than once this season
• Run in 5 or less handicap hurdles
• Second season hurdler
• Favourites have a poor record in the race with only 1 winner and 1 place from 8 runnings. 7/8 winners have been priced between 7/1 and 14/1.

Trends indicate: Frontier Dancer, Tullamore Dew, Argento Luna, Mighty Moon,

Trends analysis: There are a few live contenders that miss out by virtue of being third season hurdlers such as David Pipe’s Mamlook (6th in this race last year). Of those highlighted Argento Luna could be worth a look but Frontier Dancer is the one stand out at a decent price (available at 12/1 across the board at the time of publishing).

Nigel Twiston-Davies' Frontier Dancer

Conclusion


An exceedingly tough race to call as there are numerous dark/unexposed horses lurking at close to an each way price. The two who I’ll highlight are Harry Tricker on the back of his Khyber Kim form and Frontier Dancer on the back of trend satisfaction and likely improvement.

Selections

Harry Tricker 1* 6/1 (best price advised 12:30 thursday 17th)
Frontier Dancer (each-way) 1* 12/1 (best price advised 12:30 thursday 17th)

You may rest assured that I will back each of my selections with 1 point equal to a dickens (£10).

From the front line...betting shop wisdom #1

#1 Follow Fehily

I was in the process of throwing fourty pounds down the drain in a Totesport down near the fountains in Bristol's city centre this weekend when I got to talking to a knowledgeable student of the form. He switched me on to a gem of punting info which I shall pass on to you.


When it comes to level stakes profit, Noel Fehily, Charlie Mann's stable jockey puts the superstar names of the sport to shame boasting around +£35 margin for all but one of ther last 4 seasons. His strike rate may be slightly lower than than some of the his more illustrious colleagues but when it comes to level stakes profit (+£19.56 this season)he easily outstrips Ruby Walsh (-£14.56)or AP McCoy (-£92.42!).

TR

Skill vs Luck vs Instinct in the world of the horse racing gambler

The almost universally accepted standard mix Gin and Juice contains 2 oz. Gin, 2 oz. Grapefruit Juice, 3 oz. Orange Juice and 1 slice of Lime.


The gin and the grapefruit in equal measure, just a little more orange, the crescent of lime like a martian sunset, its a mix which has its undeniable symmetries and asymmetries. While its symmetries lend themselves to wilful, haphazard construction at the barbeque, the public house, the park or the club its asymmetries remind the mixer of the need for constant vigilance: to read and take note of the signs that the helpful night provides.

Whether the gambler can rely on such benevolence from the heady cocktail sloshing around somewhere southward of their own breast is another matter entirely. The measures are more arbitrary, the receptacle more unforgiving and most crucially there is only one single chance to get it right. Fortune itself is the hard liquor in this cocktail and its powerful intoxicating qualities are mixed with knowledge and instinct to taste. A corrosive concoction, it may lead to a gnawing feeling in the pit of of your stomach which, unlike in the case of more conventional beverages, cannot be relieved by vomiting into the nearest flowerpot. Instead you place your bet, take your odds and wait...


Skill


If its skill you want simply watch the finesse of touch and hair-trigger timing of Choc Thornton when bringing an out and out stayer through to beat a classier horse (as he did with Medermit against Dee Ee Williams not so long ago http://racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=470755&r_date=2008-12-19&popup=yes).

Turn not to the punter, for there is little bewitching skill involved in horse selection, only an accumulation of knowledge and its application.

Much in the same way as a plumber or electrician is considered to be skilled by the layman, a knowledgeable punter maybe convey an aura of "skill" to the mug or the favourite backer when giving reasons for his selections. Upon closer examination one must agree that our tradesman friends and punters both use knowledge filtered through logic to find the solution to the question that presents itself and that this is something essential to how human beings survived in the world rather than a craft beyond most ordinary mortals.

Learn all that you can of form: jockeys, courses, trainers, trainers at courses, jockeys with trainers for it will stand you in good stead. Above all respect C&D (course and distance) stats as these are the holy grail in form terms (which is why after last year's capitualtion on the famous hill this punter will not be steaming into Binocular for this year's Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham) .


"What about the intricate systems of the professional gamblers and spread bettors" you say? "surely there must be skill involved there?" You've got this all wrong - for these people are businessmen not gamblers and as such should be seen only as the penny pinching cowards that they are.

Though it may seem that talking of studying the form as a practice devoid of skill denigrates the nobility of the gambler and the gamble this is far from the case, for there is skill aplenty required to gain mastery of the whirlwind of competing variables, nagging paranoia and crippling fear of financial ruin and still finally reach the transcendent level of emotional equilibrium required to deposit £20 on the nose.


Luck


An elusive beast in gambling as in everyday life, luck is most often seen covetously, knocking around with other, less deserving people. A beautiful girl inexplicably entangled with someone no less if not slightly more of a fool than yourself for instance, or the enduring popularity of Razorlight. Luck cannot be relied upon to make itself known when it is present, to ease you up when you’re poor or to cheer you up when you’re down. In your favour its manifestations will often provide only very relative comforts like being told you are "cute" by someone you want to have sex with or not being flattened by a tram when lost in Croydon.


'They say I shot a man named Gray and took
his wife to Italy/She inherited a million bucks
and when she died it came to me/I can't help it
if I'm lucky.'

From 'Idiot Wind' by Bob Dylan ('Blood on the Tracks' LP)

It may interest those who are not particularly well versed on the life and times of the great man that 'Blood on the Tracks' dealt with the heart-rending break-up from Dylan's then wife, Sara Lownds. Try to imagine the taste of bitter irony contorting his mouth into a wry smile as he sings 'I can't help it if I'm lucky'...you now have a good grasp of the gambler's relationship with the concept of luck. Every joyful explosion of good fortune is sharpened by the memory of past despairs, for every great win there will always be times that you are down, when the shoo-ins came nowhere or when the great horses pushed their/your luck one race to far.

As luck can only be seen to be evident in hindsight or from outside a situation the more scientifically minded of you might be tempted to say that it doesn't exist.

Having said this if my (seemingly now hopeless) pre-christmas, ante-post Cheltenham four timer with Kalahari King, Ballyfitz, Starluck and Simarian cops then the whim of a benevolent universe will be the only possible explanation.


Instinct


Instincts, those primal forces that surge up from our loins, course through our veins and crackle across what may be left our screen sozzled, booze boggled brains. They can be held up as all that is natural, unmitigated and animal in man but in we, the modern humanity, they are massaged, subverted, perverted and exploited by the endless streams of words and pictures that swim like schools of fish on retainers past our ears and around our eyes.

While I would not advocate a return to the bad old days of cock or dog fighting, the violence, noise and oppressive atmosphere made it a gamble you could not consider without gut feelings aflame and as such a situation whereby your punting instincts were more plausibly and viscerally interwoven with reality.

In the modern gambling sphere the average punter is divorced from the action, watching it beamed through a screen via satellite from another part of the world. When viewed this way the relevance of instinct must be doubted. It is a bodily reaction, a stirring in the gut that is robbed (unless one is in attendance of the race or game) of any physical bond with the events about to unfold. You cannot sense the mood, taste the air or really definitively tell if the horse has a sweaty arse hole* unless you are right there! Any instincts which you feel across across the telewaves must surely be relatively spurious?

I can offer from recent punting memory an inditement of instinct as a gambling tool. It came when I settled down with a young lady friend of mine to watch the Henessey Gold Cup at Newbury earlier this season. I had long fancied two horses for the race. One was (what now seems completely inexplicably) Nicky Henderson's Oedipe on the nose and the other was an each way punt on David Pipe's Madison Du Berlais. Pipe's horse had come fourth the previous year in the race won by the subsequent Gold Cup winner Denman and in comparison this year's race was not a vintage renewal. I went down to Angel's cafe for my traditional gambling breakfast of liver, bacon and fried onions and disastrously failed to take the 50/1 about MDB in favour of some other no hoper who had entered suddenly into my thoughts as I polished off the yoke with what was left of a fried slice. Of course Madison romped it, leaving Oedipe abosolutely nowhere to be seen and me over three ton out of pocket. Being someone not prone to outwardly manifest outbursts of rage the anger which I turned in upon myself had nothing in common with the noble instincts of other members of the animal kingdom. Gambling can hit you like a drug and in this case the drug was most probably crack.


Untrammelled instincts hastened the fall of Rome and if they are allowed too free a rein in gambling life they will have no trouble in bringing down empires far less glorious. Nevertheless it is instinct that leads us to gamble in the first place and so gamble we shall.


In Conclusion


Some may say the gambler can take comfort from the fact that in his card for the next race, which contains a pre-agreed number of options (subject to non-runners) the world with its maddeningly infinite highways and byways is subdued, simplified and digestible. Yet we know gambling to be just as much about what Pete Doherty in a moment of clarity reminded us was the 'rapture of vertigo, and letting go'.

From this short examination of the relative merits of skill, luck and instinct we can conclude two things: firstly that the aid proffered by the three varies from non-existent to mildly helpful or extremely useful/useless with hindsight; and furthermore that regardless we shall continue to gamble lured back time and again by a profound feeling for our medium, for fate and for romance.

* This is a genuine tip for telling if a horse is not going to be up for it from my Aunt Teresa, an avid racegoer for many a year.