Showing posts with label opinion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label opinion. Show all posts

Thursday, 25 March 2010

A Gambler's Guide to the East Coast Mainline

Polish Ecstasy tend to let a gambler’s attitude pervade most aspects of life, whether this be staying in bed until the last possible moment (and beyond) before being massively late for work or taking death defying risks as we leap through closing doors and speed through red lights on the daily commute.

In the first of these columns, which are gambler’s guides to everyday life we’re going to address travelling on the train and principally the Peterborough to London, East Coast Mainline route.


***


The leaden poetry inherent as the driver intones “St Neots... Sandy... Biggleswade...Stevenage... Potter’s Bar”; the oceans that would swell and recede season by season on the flood plains between Ely and March, the sense of leaving behind places you’ll never ever know; there is a mundane beauty to travelling between Britain’s big cities by train.



As the carriages wait on the outskirts of forgotten towns and cities or trundle across the fields between, the passenger is left to gaze out into the middle distance somewhere between the scenery and their own reflection. Needless to say, these pleasurable moments of disengagement are all too often interrupted by hair gel slicked provincial teenagers - all Breezers, nasal voices and cheap aftershave; gales of boozy laughter from toxic hen parties, banal conversations conducted at hurricane volume, persistent coughs, roaming stenches, lonely perverts or the silent threat of shark-eyed psychopaths but somehow they abide in the gaps between.

Many other grave assaults on the senses face the travelling man on his way across the country but none inspire greater feelings of helplessness and impotent rage than the dreaded site of the ticket inspector emerging through the doors at the other end of the carriage.

As a child travelling with my parents I‘d always felt a twinge of annoyance when arriving at the end of a journey, unchecked ticket in hand, knowing that we could have got away with it. Later, having begun criss-crossing the country’s railway networks under my own steam during my faltering adolescence, the nebulous morality issues surrounding paying my fare began to crystallise - like the abundance of jelly in a British Rail pork pie - around one thing: the crushing effect it had on my already sparse pocket money. Seeds of resentment were sewn.



The years passed with the haircuts, a brief trist with the Ministry of Sound's 'Ibiza Annual' and various other misguided obsessions and love affairs (Kimberley Stiff, the elusive and ultimately treacherous Carol) came and went and in the autumn off 2002 I left for university. During the fallow weekends I would often find myself travelling home for band practises or to London on the trail of The Libertines. Feelings of overwhelming freedom abounded, all wrapped up in warm beer, blue smoke*, and the songs of ‘Up The Bracket’.

As my visits to the capital became more common the seed of disobedience that had formed in my childish breast began to flower and I would take my ticketless chances with more or less unhindered success on the route operated formerly by WAGN between Peterborough and London, all the time gaining knowledge and expertise. It is with these fond memories in mind (as well as mounting consternation at constantly rising ticket prices and their ever more abstract relation to increases in service quality and reliability) that I hope to give the gift of worry free travel that only an extra thirty quid in your sky rocket or a near failsafe excuse system can bring, with the low down on how to minimise fares along this well worn route.

*Not Crack.

Disclaimer: Polish Ecstasy does not condone fraudulent or naughty behaviour in any fashion whatsoever.


***

For those of you unfamiliar with the route in question it is important to remember ticket inspectors travel infrequently up and down the line so it’s always necessary to keep an eye out for them. Anecdotally speaking, the amount of times you bump into one and are forced to part with some cash tends to be a sufficiently low percentage of total trips to recommend a policy of blanket free travelling. The trick is to minimise the damage when you are caught and the best way to do this is to remember the last station you passed so that you can claim to have got on there. It is necessary to know which stations do not use ticket barriers (make a reference to the check-list below) as it is perfectly plausible that you may have had to run to catch the train and not had time to visit the machine.

***


Check List

  • Peterborough - Guards on exits at random times

  • Huntingdon - Barriers on Northbound platform

  • St Neots - No reliable data

  • Sandy - No barriers,

  • Biggleswade - No barriers

  • Arlesey - No barriers

  • Hitchin - Barriers

  • Welwyn North - No barriers

  • Welwyn Garden City -Barriers

  • Stevenage -Barriers

  • Potters Bar - No reliable data, barriers expected

  • Finsbury Park - No barriers

  • Kings Cross - No barriers, Guards on exits at random times

Notes.

* Getting off at Finsbury Park will save you trouble as well as time at the London end more often than not.

* Often Ticket Inspectors seem to swoop at Huntingdon.

* Stevenage is a shit hole.




Good Luck.

Monday, 22 February 2010

Saturday's Big Race Preview: 15:05 Racing Post Chase Kempton


Hello again my friends. Let's take a look forward to what will, weather permitting, be this Saturday’s big handicap chase.

There are some strong trends in existence which I found on the excellent website http://www.racecaller.com/ , an invaluable resource for big race trends. Monday’s forfeits are in and we are left with a 16 string field to mitigate or obliterate.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse which is...

· Aged 6 to 8, (8 year olds in particular have won five of the last ten runnings)

· Carrying 10-12+ (9/10 recent winners, 4 being top weight)

· Officially rated 143 or higher

· Won last time out (9/10 recent winners)

· Run in 2 to 4 chases this season

· Won or placed in a listed or graded chase

· Won over 2M 5F+

· Course winner

· Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls

· Priced 10/1 or below (10/10 recent winners)

In the light of the fairly emphatic looking starting price trend we’ll have a look at those horses who have lithely limboed their way under the 10/1 bar

Nacarat – Ante-post favourite for the race, Nacarat certainly didn’t have a horse of the quality of Madison Du Berlais to beat when taking last year’s renewal by 9 lengths from Possol but is clearly not a million miles away in terms of class after finshing fourth in the King George over C&D at Christmas. Will like the going and must surely come very close again.



Fistral Beach – A serial silver medallist before finally scoring over 2miles 4 and a half furlongs on the Kempton turf last time out. Trained by Paul Nicholls, he will have the incomparable Ruby Walsh on board. Strikingly he will be in receipt of over two stone (out of the weights at the moment) from Madison Du Berlais so could be a threat though forging out over a 3 mile trip for the first time on the likely soft ground could be a tough assignment. Best watched at the price, though some might say you should wait to hear Paul Nicholls’ feelings in Saturday’s Racing Post, then send your money in the opposite direction!

Kilcrea Castle - Another who has yet to prove he can see out the trip, though affirmative noises have come from trainer Emma Lavelle on the subject. He has been the subject of a large gamble already in to 13/2 from 16/1, finished close behind the Sawyer and Miss Mitch in his first race in England recently and is one of the three in Saturday's race (along with Razor Royale and Kilcrea Castle) who fall under the strong trend for 8 year old winners. Fancied to have a strong chance.

Possol - A doubt for the race due to the expected soft ground, Possol has been at his most effective this season and recieves plenty of weight from Nacarat, his conqueror in last year's running. Definite claims should the going improve but one to hold fire on until the day.


Madison Du Berlais -The class horse in the race, he has the form edge around Kempton over Nacarat and therefore Possol. His performance last time at Cheltenham can be tippexed as the horse has shown that he just doesn’t get on with the stamina test at the Cotswolds track, running consistently below his best there. The record top weights hold in the last ten runnings of this race soothes some of the worries over whether he can give away so many lbs. He seems an each way steal at the 10s which are currently available.

Miss Mitch - Has recently beaten other contenders like Kilcrea Castle and will one lb better off with him here though one win in 9 on soft ground seems to suggest that she may find it tough come saturday.

Conclusion

Nacarat and Madison du Berlais stand out in terms of ratings and weighiproven ability in high class races and as that seems to have been a consistent winning profile for this race they are preferred with a heavy heart to Kilcrea Castle who may get a little side bet on the day.

Looking at our short list its a no-brainer for me value-wise and I'll back MADISON DU BERLAIS each way at double the price of Nacarat.

Wednesday, 3 February 2010

Towards Cheltenham - The Champion Hurdle Picture

As January draws to a close it seems as good time as any to assess the chances of the key runners in what is often my favourite championship race at the festival, The Champion Hurdle.

With the January jumping calendar ravaged by snow and frost opportunities to see the principals add substance to their claims have been thin on the ground, trainers playing roulette with the fixture list in search of prep runs for their charges. Add to that the fact that the worth of last year’s Champion Hurdle form seems to be getting knocked about and one is left with a race that is very difficult to fathom.



The weekend of the 29th of January saw races traditionally regarded as fair trials for Cheltenham’s Tuesday showpiece go ahead at Haydock and Leopardstown and served to offer form lines (some comprehensive, some more tenuous) which unite many of the horses at the business end of the ante-post markets for the race yielding for two horses who have particularly bold claims.

After an unspectacular fourth of four in Saturday’s Haydock race that also featured Medermit and Punjabi, a yardstick of sorts has finally arrived in the steady shape of Cape Tribulation, who’s form is intertwined with the runners we’ll be looking at. Over an up and down career he seems to have fared best over distances of 2 miles 4 furlongs and upwards. Hopefully observing how the leading contenders for Champion Hurdle glory fared against him this season will allow us to gain a better handle on where they all stand in the pecking order.


Binocular – The Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle at the end of November saw several Champion Hurdle prospects line up. Binocular made a poor showing when finishing 5th, 7 lengths behind Go Native and 1 and a half adrift of Solwhit. He got a lot closer to that day’s victor when the two re-opposed in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, going down by only a length and a quarter.

Go Native –. He had already had a warm-up run before his Fighting Fifth success and beat a woefully under par Binocular and a Solwhit who was in need of his first run of the season. He beat Cape Tribulation (4th) by 6 and quarter lengths in the Christmas Hurdle in Kempton’s Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle over the 2 mile Champion Hurdle trip.

Zaynar – Not remotely pushed when recording an unspectacular win from Cape Tribulation by 6 Lengths in a longer 2 mile 4 furlong race at Cheltenham in December. It seems that Nicky Henderson is keeping him firmly away from the other leading lights between now and the festival so we are left with Cape Tribulation as the only link to the other players. CT trailed the winner by the same distance in both his race race with Zaynar (2m4f) and Go Native (2m).

Punjabi – Came home 2 lengths in front of Cape Tribulation when himself a 4 length 2nd to Medermit in the sportingbet.com Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock on Saturday.

Celestial Halo – Finished 3 Lengths up on Medermit in the Boylesports International that was won by Khyber Kim in December. He had no answer when under pressure beaten 9 lengths into fourth by Solwhit at Leopardstown over the weekend though the heavy ground may have also been partially to blame.

Solwhit – Clearly needed the run when beaten 3 and a half lengths by Go Native in The Fighting Fifth and responded by recording 2 victories in Ireland since then. His victory in Leopardstown at the weekend left Celestial Halo trailing in his wake on the heavy ground, some 9 lengths behind.

Khyber Kim – Has beaten Medermit into 3rd twice over Champion Hurdle course and distance this season. In the second of those races he came from last to first in a taking manner passing Celestial Halo on his way to the line.

Medermit – Another solid form yardstick, Medermit announced himself in the Champion Hurdle Picture on Saturday beating reigning champ Punjabi by 4 lengths on Saturday. He has been a not too distant third twice behind Khyber Kim over Cheltenham C and D.

The Verdict

Confusion reigns! Cape Tribulation has taught us precious little, though to me it seems that as yardstick he shows Zaynar in a better light due to racing against him at what seems more like his ideal distance of 2 miles 4 furlongs. If sharing Paul Nicholls’ view we rule out Celestial Halo’s recent bad run in Ireland as a blip, then I keep coming back to to one horse... Nigel Twiston Davies’s massively improved Khyber Kym.

Having two wins at Cheltenham over the Champion Hurdle Trip already under his belt beating last year’s runner up and twice beating Medermit who has himself beaten the current champion in reasonable fitness I feel he has the pick of the form.


Zaynar and particularly Solwhit are two others who have sound claims but each has an unknown undermining them.

Q.Will Solwhit transfer his Irish form to England, and more particularly Cheltenham’s singular test of stamina?

Q. Does Zaynar have the turn of foot to withstand on-rushing hold-up types such as Khyber Kym and Go Native
over the final furlong of 2 mile trip which just might not be his optimum trip?



I reckon the form has worked out very well for Khyber Kym, so I will back him out Polish Ecstasy’s biscuit budget and sit back to dream of another madcap, last to first burst to Cheltenham glory.

Monday, 14 December 2009

Player Haterz: #1 Best Xbox games of 2009...

New to Polish Ecstasy is a regular gaming column where I will be hoping to bring the latest games, news and tips. To start this off I thought i’d bring you my top 5 xbox 360 games of the year. I realise there are several games I have missed off due to not playing yet, but once my royalty cheques stop bouncing I will be purchasing and reviewing Borderlands, Left for dead 2 and Assassins Creed 2.

1. Call of duty - Modern Warfare 2. Any game that can make my local MP, the scandal free Keith Vaz, angry due to the “level of violence and realism of the game” has to be at number one. Throw in the intense set-piece levels, double crossing sometimes crazy/confusing storyline, co-op spec ops mode and one of the most popular multiplayer games in history. The only downside to this game is getting rinsed in multiplayer by 12 year old rednecks for coming bottom of your team.


2. Skate 2. For many years Tony Hawks dominated the skate game market but trends changed from the ridiculous to the realistic tricks. Players wanted to do tricks that Eric Kostan, Mike Carroll and PJ Ladd do in their videos. Skate 2 brings this realism to a huge open world city with plenty of banks, ledges and rails to sesh when you are done with the story. Online modes are plentiful from challenges to free skate sessions, you can also film and edit your own tricks and lines to upload online (check the link for my efforts).

3. Fallout 3 - Point lookout (DLC). Fallout 3 came out in 2008 but Bethesda kept the game fresh by including new downloadable content. Point lookout is my favourite by a country mile. It is similar to the rest of the game in the sense of completing quests for XP and scavenging but this is more fun as you are battling inbred hillbillies, cult members and ghouls. One quest even requires you to do it on mind bending drugs.

4. Halo 3 ODST. It’s Halo but this time not as Master Chief. In this game you are playing as a rookie ODST who’s job is to find your team and piece together what happened in New Mombasa. In single player it requires a lot more stealth than the average Halo 3 player(i.e. dumb, racist, homophobic yank) is used to but when played in four playa co-op it is a lot more fun. Online it has a Firefight mode which is similar to Gears of war 2’s Horde Mode. I can only recommend this with three other friends as you’ll need them when cornered by a wave of flying brutes and chieftains.

5. Forza 3. Forza 2 was claimed to be the best driving game of all time, Forza 3 seems to have beaten this. The graphics are sharp, the number of cars and customisable options are huge. The tracks are based on real courses and do get a bit repetitive but this is offset by the inclusion of a rewind mode which helps you replay a bad section by rewinding to before it thus helping you to not have to redo the race. One main fun feature of this game is being able to tune, upgrade and customise your car to sell in the online auction house.

Monday, 2 March 2009

Skill vs Luck vs Instinct in the world of the horse racing gambler

The almost universally accepted standard mix Gin and Juice contains 2 oz. Gin, 2 oz. Grapefruit Juice, 3 oz. Orange Juice and 1 slice of Lime.


The gin and the grapefruit in equal measure, just a little more orange, the crescent of lime like a martian sunset, its a mix which has its undeniable symmetries and asymmetries. While its symmetries lend themselves to wilful, haphazard construction at the barbeque, the public house, the park or the club its asymmetries remind the mixer of the need for constant vigilance: to read and take note of the signs that the helpful night provides.

Whether the gambler can rely on such benevolence from the heady cocktail sloshing around somewhere southward of their own breast is another matter entirely. The measures are more arbitrary, the receptacle more unforgiving and most crucially there is only one single chance to get it right. Fortune itself is the hard liquor in this cocktail and its powerful intoxicating qualities are mixed with knowledge and instinct to taste. A corrosive concoction, it may lead to a gnawing feeling in the pit of of your stomach which, unlike in the case of more conventional beverages, cannot be relieved by vomiting into the nearest flowerpot. Instead you place your bet, take your odds and wait...


Skill


If its skill you want simply watch the finesse of touch and hair-trigger timing of Choc Thornton when bringing an out and out stayer through to beat a classier horse (as he did with Medermit against Dee Ee Williams not so long ago http://racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=470755&r_date=2008-12-19&popup=yes).

Turn not to the punter, for there is little bewitching skill involved in horse selection, only an accumulation of knowledge and its application.

Much in the same way as a plumber or electrician is considered to be skilled by the layman, a knowledgeable punter maybe convey an aura of "skill" to the mug or the favourite backer when giving reasons for his selections. Upon closer examination one must agree that our tradesman friends and punters both use knowledge filtered through logic to find the solution to the question that presents itself and that this is something essential to how human beings survived in the world rather than a craft beyond most ordinary mortals.

Learn all that you can of form: jockeys, courses, trainers, trainers at courses, jockeys with trainers for it will stand you in good stead. Above all respect C&D (course and distance) stats as these are the holy grail in form terms (which is why after last year's capitualtion on the famous hill this punter will not be steaming into Binocular for this year's Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham) .


"What about the intricate systems of the professional gamblers and spread bettors" you say? "surely there must be skill involved there?" You've got this all wrong - for these people are businessmen not gamblers and as such should be seen only as the penny pinching cowards that they are.

Though it may seem that talking of studying the form as a practice devoid of skill denigrates the nobility of the gambler and the gamble this is far from the case, for there is skill aplenty required to gain mastery of the whirlwind of competing variables, nagging paranoia and crippling fear of financial ruin and still finally reach the transcendent level of emotional equilibrium required to deposit £20 on the nose.


Luck


An elusive beast in gambling as in everyday life, luck is most often seen covetously, knocking around with other, less deserving people. A beautiful girl inexplicably entangled with someone no less if not slightly more of a fool than yourself for instance, or the enduring popularity of Razorlight. Luck cannot be relied upon to make itself known when it is present, to ease you up when you’re poor or to cheer you up when you’re down. In your favour its manifestations will often provide only very relative comforts like being told you are "cute" by someone you want to have sex with or not being flattened by a tram when lost in Croydon.


'They say I shot a man named Gray and took
his wife to Italy/She inherited a million bucks
and when she died it came to me/I can't help it
if I'm lucky.'


From 'Idiot Wind' by Bob Dylan ('Blood on the Tracks' LP)

It may interest those who are not particularly well versed on the life and times of the great man that 'Blood on the Tracks' dealt with the heart-rending break-up from Dylan's then wife, Sara Lownds. Try to imagine the taste of bitter irony contorting his mouth into a wry smile as he sings 'I can't help it if I'm lucky'...you now have a good grasp of the gambler's relationship with the concept of luck. Every joyful explosion of good fortune is sharpened by the memory of past despairs, for every great win there will always be times that you are down, when the shoo-ins came nowhere or when the great horses pushed their/your luck one race to far.

As luck can only be seen to be evident in hindsight or from outside a situation the more scientifically minded of you might be tempted to say that it doesn't exist.

Having said this if my (seemingly now hopeless) pre-christmas, ante-post Cheltenham four timer with Kalahari King, Ballyfitz, Starluck and Simarian cops then the whim of a benevolent universe will be the only possible explanation.


Instinct


Instincts, those primal forces that surge up from our loins, course through our veins and crackle across what may be left our screen sozzled, booze boggled brains. They can be held up as all that is natural, unmitigated and animal in man but in we, the modern humanity, they are massaged, subverted, perverted and exploited by the endless streams of words and pictures that swim like schools of fish on retainers past our ears and around our eyes.

While I would not advocate a return to the bad old days of cock or dog fighting, the violence, noise and oppressive atmosphere made it a gamble you could not consider without gut feelings aflame and as such a situation whereby your punting instincts were more plausibly and viscerally interwoven with reality.

In the modern gambling sphere the average punter is divorced from the action, watching it beamed through a screen via satellite from another part of the world. When viewed this way the relevance of instinct must be doubted. It is a bodily reaction, a stirring in the gut that is robbed (unless one is in attendance of the race or game) of any physical bond with the events about to unfold. You cannot sense the mood, taste the air or really definitively tell if the horse has a sweaty arse hole* unless you are right there! Any instincts which you feel across across the telewaves must surely be relatively spurious?

I can offer from recent punting memory an inditement of instinct as a gambling tool. It came when I settled down with a young lady friend of mine to watch the Henessey Gold Cup at Newbury earlier this season. I had long fancied two horses for the race. One was (what now seems completely inexplicably) Nicky Henderson's Oedipe on the nose and the other was an each way punt on David Pipe's Madison Du Berlais. Pipe's horse had come fourth the previous year in the race won by the subsequent Gold Cup winner Denman and in comparison this year's race was not a vintage renewal. I went down to Angel's cafe for my traditional gambling breakfast of liver, bacon and fried onions and disastrously failed to take the 50/1 about MDB in favour of some other no hoper who had entered suddenly into my thoughts as I polished off the yoke with what was left of a fried slice. Of course Madison romped it, leaving Oedipe abosolutely nowhere to be seen and me over three ton out of pocket. Being someone not prone to outwardly manifest outbursts of rage the anger which I turned in upon myself had nothing in common with the noble instincts of other members of the animal kingdom. Gambling can hit you like a drug and in this case the drug was most probably crack.


Untrammelled instincts hastened the fall of Rome and if they are allowed too free a rein in gambling life they will have no trouble in bringing down empires far less glorious. Nevertheless it is instinct that leads us to gamble in the first place and so gamble we shall.


In Conclusion


Some may say the gambler can take comfort from the fact that in his card for the next race, which contains a pre-agreed number of options (subject to non-runners) the world with its maddeningly infinite highways and byways is subdued, simplified and digestible. Yet we know gambling to be just as much about what Pete Doherty in a moment of clarity reminded us was the 'rapture of vertigo, and letting go'.

From this short examination of the relative merits of skill, luck and instinct we can conclude two things: firstly that the aid proffered by the three varies from non-existent to mildly helpful or extremely useful/useless with hindsight; and furthermore that regardless we shall continue to gamble lured back time and again by a profound feeling for our medium, for fate and for romance.

* This is a genuine tip for telling if a horse is not going to be up for it from my Aunt Teresa, an avid racegoer for many a year.