Saturday's Big Race Preview: 15:05 Racing Post Chase Kempton

Hello again my friends. Let's take a look forward to what will, weather permitting, be this Saturday’s big handicap chase.

There are some strong trends in existence which I found on the excellent website http://www.racecaller.com/ , an invaluable resource for big race trends. Monday’s forfeits are in and we are left with a 16 string field to mitigate or obliterate.


Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse which is...

· Aged 6 to 8, (8 year olds in particular have won five of the last ten runnings)

· Carrying 10-12+ (9/10 recent winners, 4 being top weight)

· Officially rated 143 or higher

· Won last time out (9/10 recent winners)

· Run in 2 to 4 chases this season

· Won or placed in a listed or graded chase

· Won over 2M 5F+

· Course winner

· Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls

· Priced 10/1 or below (10/10 recent winners)

In the light of the fairly emphatic looking starting price trend we’ll have a look at those horses who have lithely limboed their way under the 10/1 bar

Nacarat – Ante-post favourite for the race, Nacarat certainly didn’t have a horse of the quality of Madison Du Berlais to beat when taking last year’s renewal by 9 lengths from Possol but is clearly not a million miles away in terms of class after finshing fourth in the King George over C&D at Christmas. Will like the going and must surely come very close again.



Fistral Beach – A serial silver medallist before finally scoring over 2miles 4 and a half furlongs on the Kempton turf last time out. Trained by Paul Nicholls, he will have the incomparable Ruby Walsh on board. Strikingly he will be in receipt of over two stone (out of the weights at the moment) from Madison Du Berlais so could be a threat though forging out over a 3 mile trip for the first time on the likely soft ground could be a tough assignment. Best watched at the price, though some might say you should wait to hear Paul Nicholls’ feelings in Saturday’s Racing Post, then send your money in the opposite direction!

Kilcrea Castle - Another who has yet to prove he can see out the trip, though affirmative noises have come from trainer Emma Lavelle on the subject. He has been the subject of a large gamble already in to 13/2 from 16/1, finished close behind the Sawyer and Miss Mitch in his first race in England recently and is one of the three in Saturday's race (along with Razor Royale and Kilcrea Castle) who fall under the strong trend for 8 year old winners. Fancied to have a strong chance.

Possol - A doubt for the race due to the expected soft ground, Possol has been at his most effective this season and recieves plenty of weight from Nacarat, his conqueror in last year's running. Definite claims should the going improve but one to hold fire on until the day.


Madison Du Berlais -The class horse in the race, he has the form edge around Kempton over Nacarat and therefore Possol. His performance last time at Cheltenham can be tippexed as the horse has shown that he just doesn’t get on with the stamina test at the Cotswolds track, running consistently below his best there. The record top weights hold in the last ten runnings of this race soothes some of the worries over whether he can give away so many lbs. He seems an each way steal at the 10s which are currently available.

Miss Mitch - Has recently beaten other contenders like Kilcrea Castle and will one lb better off with him here though one win in 9 on soft ground seems to suggest that she may find it tough come saturday.

Conclusion

Nacarat and Madison du Berlais stand out in terms of ratings and weighiproven ability in high class races and as that seems to have been a consistent winning profile for this race they are preferred with a heavy heart to Kilcrea Castle who may get a little side bet on the day.

Looking at our short list its a no-brainer for me value-wise and I'll back MADISON DU BERLAIS each way at double the price of Nacarat.

Saturday's Globe Trotting Football Accumulators brought to you by Sun Tzu

I've been having a look at the football this Saturday and there seem to be a plethora of likely bets on Saturday which I might attack in the kind of intricately tactical web of doubles, trebles and accumulators that Sun Tzu (author of the go to book for philosophical footballers such as Aston Villa's Nigel Reo-Coker) might have used to obliterate the bookmaking syndicates of ancient China.

The masterful Zulte Waregem squad are hoping to "a real fucking number" on SK Roselare on the 20th according to dashingly named striker Teddy Chevalier.

I’m sure there are plenty more diamonds to be found in the Dutch, Greek, Cypriot and Turkish rough on Sunday too! Let me know what you think of them, any you feel I’ve missed etc. Also what do you think of the chances of the big 2 in Spain this weekend?

You can find all these and more on Betfair.


Germany

Nurnberg v B Munich*

England

Wolves v Chelsea* (this one seems quite dodgy, especially in light of Chelsea’s CL 2nd round match next week)

Nottingham Forest* v Middlesbrough
Newcastle* v Preston
Cardiff* v Barnsley

Swindon* v Carlisle
Norwich* v Southampton
Colchester* v Oldham

Rochdale* v Dag and Red

Possible value upsets

Arsenal v Sunderland*
Celtic v Dundee*

Austria

FK Austria Wien* v SK Austria Karnten

Belgium

Zulte-Waregem* v Roeselare

Italy

Inter* v Sampdoria

From the frontline...betting shop wisdom # 2: AP McCoy’s "Shangri-Las"

The man they have come to know simply as ‘Champ’ can be a divisive figure among followers of jumps racing . Known for banging home more winners than any other jockey, AP McCoy has become something of an exalted figure in the sport, with few famous faces keen to do anything besides pay lip-service to his undoubtedly immense will to win.

There are however those among the punting fraternity who would regard AP as a 'grinder' who while most certainly a highly skilled horseman, does not have the cultured approach of Ruby Walsh. This may be something to do with the fact that his reputation is not one born out of profitability. It has been a decade after all, since he finished a season in the black when backed in each race to a one pound stake.


AP is undoubtedly a grinder, picking up wins at ‘lowly’ tracks up and down the roads of this sceptre isle but for the punter these victories in nothing races can keep you in Courvoisier till you’re old and grey if you know the tracks where he truly excels. South Wales’ new and highly thought of Ffos Las track is fast beginning to prove a Shangri-la for the ‘Champ’ and punters alike.


An overall record of 14 wins from 34 rides (41%) at the track yields a lovely + £18.54 strike rate but it’s when you narrow it down to his ‘Chase’ rides at the track that the real statistical truffle is unearthed.

From the 12 Chases he has contested at the Carmarthenshire course AP has been victorious on no fewer than 8 occasions delivering a 67% strike rate which would leave you £20.88 in profit if you’d staked a pound on each of the races. It may be early days for Ffos Las but in AP McCoy, its clear we have already found our preferred pilot.

Grind out some nice dough backing A.P McCoy in Chases at Ffos Las

Towards Cheltenham - The Champion Hurdle Picture

As January draws to a close it seems as good time as any to assess the chances of the key runners in what is often my favourite championship race at the festival, The Champion Hurdle.

With the January jumping calendar ravaged by snow and frost opportunities to see the principals add substance to their claims have been thin on the ground, trainers playing roulette with the fixture list in search of prep runs for their charges. Add to that the fact that the worth of last year’s Champion Hurdle form seems to be getting knocked about and one is left with a race that is very difficult to fathom.

The weekend of the 29th of January saw races traditionally regarded as fair trials for Cheltenham’s Tuesday showpiece go ahead at Haydock and Leopardstown and served to offer form lines (some comprehensive, some more tenuous) which unite many of the horses at the business end of the ante-post markets for the race yielding for two horses who have particularly bold claims.

After an unspectacular fourth of four in Saturday’s Haydock race that also featured Medermit and Punjabi, a yardstick of sorts has finally arrived in the steady shape of Cape Tribulation, who’s form is intertwined with the runners we’ll be looking at. Over an up and down career he seems to have fared best over distances of 2 miles 4 furlongs and upwards. Hopefully observing how the leading contenders for Champion Hurdle glory fared against him this season will allow us to gain a better handle on where they all stand in the pecking order.


Binocular – The Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle at the end of November saw several Champion Hurdle prospects line up. Binocular made a poor showing when finishing 5th, 7 lengths behind Go Native and 1 and a half adrift of Solwhit. He got a lot closer to that day’s victor when the two re-opposed in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, going down by only a length and a quarter.

Go Native –. He had already had a warm-up run before his Fighting Fifth success and beat a woefully under par Binocular and a Solwhit who was in need of his first run of the season. He beat Cape Tribulation (4th) by 6 and quarter lengths in the Christmas Hurdle in Kempton’s Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle over the 2 mile Champion Hurdle trip.

Zaynar – Not remotely pushed when recording an unspectacular win from Cape Tribulation by 6 Lengths in a longer 2 mile 4 furlong race at Cheltenham in December. It seems that Nicky Henderson is keeping him firmly away from the other leading lights between now and the festival so we are left with Cape Tribulation as the only link to the other players. CT trailed the winner by the same distance in both his race race with Zaynar (2m4f) and Go Native (2m).

Punjabi – Came home 2 lengths in front of Cape Tribulation when himself a 4 length 2nd to Medermit in the sportingbet.com Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock on Saturday.

Celestial Halo – Finished 3 Lengths up on Medermit in the Boylesports International that was won by Khyber Kim in December. He had no answer when under pressure beaten 9 lengths into fourth by Solwhit at Leopardstown over the weekend though the heavy ground may have also been partially to blame.

Solwhit – Clearly needed the run when beaten 3 and a half lengths by Go Native in The Fighting Fifth and responded by recording 2 victories in Ireland since then. His victory in Leopardstown at the weekend left Celestial Halo trailing in his wake on the heavy ground, some 9 lengths behind.

Khyber Kim – Has beaten Medermit into 3rd twice over Champion Hurdle course and distance this season. In the second of those races he came from last to first in a taking manner passing Celestial Halo on his way to the line.

Medermit – Another solid form yardstick, Medermit announced himself in the Champion Hurdle Picture on Saturday beating reigning champ Punjabi by 4 lengths on Saturday. He has been a not too distant third twice behind Khyber Kim over Cheltenham C and D.

The Verdict

Confusion reigns! Cape Tribulation has taught us precious little, though to me it seems that as yardstick he shows Zaynar in a better light due to racing against him at what seems more like his ideal distance of 2 miles 4 furlongs. If sharing Paul Nicholls’ view we rule out Celestial Halo’s recent bad run in Ireland as a blip, then I keep coming back to to one horse... Nigel Twiston Davies’s massively improved Khyber Kym.

Having two wins at Cheltenham over the Champion Hurdle Trip already under his belt beating last year’s runner up and twice beating Medermit who has himself beaten the current champion in reasonable fitness I feel he has the pick of the form.


Zaynar and particularly Solwhit are two others who have sound claims but each has an unknown undermining them.

Q.Will Solwhit transfer his Irish form to England, and more particularly Cheltenham’s singular test of stamina?

Q. Does Zaynar have the turn of foot to withstand on-rushing hold-up types such as Khyber Kym and Go Native
over the final furlong of 2 mile trip which just might not be his optimum trip?



I reckon the form has worked out very well for Khyber Kym, so I will back him out Polish Ecstasy’s biscuit budget and sit back to dream of another madcap, last to first burst to Cheltenham glory.

Polish Ecstasy’s Cheltenham Festival Bookie-Busting Ante-Post Accumulator

Ah! hello there my friends, want to make 97 grand? Of course you do. All you'll need is ten pounds sterling and three months of patience. Read on to find out how....

As the we’re now only three months from the high water mark of the jumps season it’s become a tradition for me to sit down with my notebook on events so far and the ante-post markets for the festival to place a frivolous and fanciful each way accumulator.

Last year’s selections were made just shy of Christmas and the four horses I selected promised to pay £5,000 and £500,000 from my ten pound e/w stake when they raced to medal places at the festival. In the final reckoning only one of the horses placed and one neglected to take in the festival at all, such are the pitfalls of the ante-post game.

I’m posting these selections before the Cheltenham Trials Meeting at the end of the month in the hope that greater value can be gleaned for my selections.

This year’s bookie busters....

Arkle Trophy

French Opera is already in my ante-post portfolio for this race with the princely sums of £2 WIN @100/1, £5 PLACE @ 13/1 riding on his back but he is a far from likely runner. Tataniano and Somersby the two that particularly catch the eye at this stage. Tataniano jumped the Cheltenham fences with real grace last time out though the race itself was a distinctly tepid affair. Somersby did well at the festival last year finishing 3rd in the Supreme Novices Hurdle won by Go Native (when generally regarded to be a chasing prospect) and gets the nod for the bookie-buster by virtue of having beaten better horses (fellow Arkle prospect Crackaway Jack for example).


Selection: Somersby


Champion Hurdle

Though not quite such stonking a price as last year (33/1) Punjabi still represents excellent value at 12/1. Another I’ve been taken with is Khyber Kim who’s two strong runs this season seem not to have made as much impression on the bookies as they have with me. The only doubt with him is his Trainer’s tradition going off the boil after mid-December.

Selection: Khyber Kim


RSA Chase

This a notoriously arduous race for a young chaser and has been known to take its toll on recent alumni. We’ll need to go for a rock hard competitor Weird Al is an interesting one, with two course victories to his name already. He has scope for further improvement, jumps well and will have one more run before Cheltenham. The other one I fancy to do what he needs to (place at least) is Pandorama. He beat a previous Cheltenham winner in Weapon’s Amnesty last time out when his trainer acknowledged that he was not 100%, nonetheless doubts over his jumping persist and the worry is that he may be found out over the stiff festival fences. This a bitch of a choice with both available at around the same price, the gut opts says Pandorama will get the trip whilst the breast sees Weird Al as the more likely improver.

Selection: Weird Al


Ryanair Chase

Poquelin has a massive chance but we are looking for value here. There is some conjecture over which race Planet of Sound will run in but this seems the most likely. He’s bred to stay further than this trip which makes his Arkle third (over 2 miles) last year all the more impressive. His performance in his most recent race where he stayed on brilliantly to take 2nd despite 2 jumping mishaps shows he’s the kind of tough cookie that could fly away with the Ryanair, boom boom.

Selection: Planet of Sound

THE BET


odds at : 15:45

4 Fold Accumulator

Somersby to win Arkle Chase @ 8/1
Khyber Kim to win Champion Hurdle @ 12/1
Weird Al to win RSA Chase @ 14/1
Planet of Sound to win Ryanair Chase @ 10/1

Bet £5 each way advised and struck on Friday 08/01/09 with Paddy Power

The future's not ours to see dear friends but if this bet kops we'll be looking through our rose tinted spectacles at anywhere from...

* £945 if each of our steeds gets home in the first three, to...

* £97,470 if they all miraculously win.

Make sure you let us know about any ante-post flutters for the festival, or any fancies you have in general. Just comment wherever you can find a box. Good luck x

The way she goes - A guide to fruities

This piece is my guide to fruit machines, hopefully I can share some of my experiences and tips. First off I’d say DON’T play them, you’ll lose. They are greasy and ladies will look down on you and if you get a big win from the off, you’ll think that will happen every time. Remember they are Fruit machines not cash machines. If you happen to mutter the phrase “it’s going to pay out” you’re in too deep and kidding yourself, you might just walk away even, at least thats what you say even though you’re £40 down.

That saying I love the bastards, the flashing lights draw you in and the thrill you get when the mega streak hits is worth the lows. During my career in the fruits game i’ve had some big wins and losses, now I play casually on a night out and more times than not end up having my drink money covered from a couple of machines. I'd recommend a Wetherspoons on a saturday or wednesday. Let some mug fill them up then go for £1 a spin till you get on the board, take the small to mid size wins and it should add up in no time. If you push for the Jackie and it doesn’t come then you’re the mug filling it up for the nextman.

I was going to give some more tips but I don’t think i’ll pass them on. You can make mistakes like me and countless other fools chasing that dream of a pocket full of pound coins.

On a side note I really do recommend staying away from the £500 video machines in the bookies and arcades. I realise this is a contradiction as I have had my biggest wins on these. £998 profit in one day from a £60 outlay but these things are truly the work of the devil. They sucker you in teasing you with small wins yet is more common than not they will rinse a twenty note in less than a minute.

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I will leave you with my favourite fruit machine story. I was waiting for a train at Leicester station and decided to throw a couple of pounds into a Barcrest happy campers. At a table next to the machine was a group of pretty 20 somethings who gave me a look of disgust and muttered something which was followed by a laugh. Undeterred I carried on, to my surprise the machine went invincible straight away giving me a jackpot repeat, then it followed up with a quick £12 giving £82 in all. On hearing the magical sound of pound coins hitting the tray the ladies then started chatting to me excitedly about how quickly I won. I scooped the money into my bag and replied “it’s all in a days work” before walking off like a fruit machine rain man.

Postcards from the Provinces #1: Leicester

Welcome to the first in an occasional series of postcards from the more ill-starred and unremarkable of Britain's medium sized, mid-ranking towns, cities and conurbations.


The first post comes from Leicester, the home of Walkers Crisps, reptilian MP Keith Vaz and the 'Grebo' artistic/sartorial movement.


Art: ‘Warbo’ was reputedly one of the pseudonyms of Andy Warhol protégé Jean Michel Basqiuat. This early work found near The Manor public house, former base of the Leicester City hooligan firm known as the 'Baby Squad', seems to indicate an artist still coming to terms with his identity.

Culture: In the 1980s Leicester was the epicentre of the almost instantly moribund Melody Maker/NME christened ‘Grebo’ subculture, being the fertile ground from which notable scene pioneers such as Gaye Bykers on Acid and Crazyhead sprouted. More recently Kasabian have picked up the musical baton.

Dance-floor Etiquette: A noticeable foible of popular dance in Leicester is a tendency to switch rapidly back and forth between moods of mouse like meekness and wild-eyed and unabashed sexual aggression, often within a single middle 8. Conversely, the men-folk keep a brooding vigil around the margins of the dance floor but are not so po-faced as to avoid making sport altogether, stepping in on occasion to steal an unusual hat.


Folklore: Pictured below is an area of wind-swept grassland in Thurnby Lodge(a council estate created after the city’s slums were demolished in the 1950s) which is reputedly stalked, according to local myth by a man with a ‘Freddie Kruger hand’.

Food and drink: A particularly foul regional take on Whiskey and Ginger Ale doubles as a kind of ersatz TCP, replicating both its noxious smell and its taste. If this sounds like something that might interest you I seem to remember the active element to be Laphroig Whiskey. If you plan to use this drink topically perhaps adding Baileys or Malibu to the mix may help.

Walker's Crisps may have been swallowed up by an international crisp conglomerate but Sandworth Brothers, one of the UK's biggest names in the sausage roll/tikka slice game is still resolutely flying the flag for Leicester cuisine in the nation's gut consciousness.


Indie Disco Review: Mosh, St Nicholas Place.

Entry: Doorman are as inconsistent as is the norm. It is quite possible you will be marched outside to sober up in the rain simply for leaning on the bar. "Everybody does this in London" will not go down well by way of explanation, no matter how jokily it may be intended. The £2 entry charge becomes less reasonable the longer you spend inside.

Smell: Season-old shinpads.

Decor: Sumo's main, vain attempt to break up the dominant indie disco motifs of black painted walls and sticky carpets is to cover large areas of wall space with black and white pictures of callow young concert crowds, sharing an aesthetic resonance with Ezra Pound's imagist work
'In a Station on The Metro' . The faces are frozen in catatonic states of bliss, bewilderment or indifference, benign and oblivious to the events mostly not unfolding before them.

Refreshments: Cheap and nasty. The lager on tap is definitely something to avoid as it smells like piss and is only very slightly cooler in temperature.

Music Policy: Seperate rooms help to aggregate the worst horrors of the DJs' playlists. In the indie room there were odd occasions scattered across the night when it was possible dance to something which didn't make you feel dead inside. These were unerringly brief and followed by 'standards' from acts such as Oasis, The Killers and Reef.

Dancing: Drastically lacking in humour. A web of joyless circles, backs turned on each other.

Romance:

Men: Young men adopt a contemporary variation of the Hijab skilfully crafted from their own straightened hair. There were so many helmets abroad that the dancefloor resembled a Sealed Knot recreation of the battle of Hastings at times. Worth further investigation if you're into Northern 'lad-rock'types, just.

Women: Thin on the ground. A gentleman's Field Mice t-shirt will definitely not recieve the recogntion it deserves. Lacking the self-assurance to share the smallest witticism or bon mot without recoiling as if from a phantom sexual attack. Stocky.


Physiognomy: The young men of the city create the disconcerting effect of having unusually small heads and comically over-developed torsos at the same time.


Security: The authorities have the shit so locked down that police recently arrested a man for taking pictures of the council’s city centre Christmas lights. Violent tension around many of the city's nightspots was conspicuous by its absence.


Youth Culture: "Behind the times and playing it safe" J Phillips, Thurnby Lodge, Leicester



So there you have it. A few of the mundane eccentricites that came to light in Leicester, one of Britain's identikit, middle sized cities. Please share you're own experiences of the city with us. Promise to write again soon,

Lots of Love

Polish Ecstasy

x x x