Tuesday, 6 September 2011

Get ready for a party with Blue Bunting

This Saturday sees the 235th running of Britain’s oldest classic, The St Leger. The race has been run in some form every year since 1776 with but a single exception in (1939) and fittingly for a such an enduring spectacle the focus is squarely on which horse has the stamina to last the distance.

The 1 mile 6 furlong trip represents a journey into the unknown for these three year old fillies and colts, most of whom will not have competed beyond 1 mile and four furlongs in their young lives.

As Town Moor holds its collective breath those who have stood the pace as far as the two furlong pole will settle down to battle out the finish. Horse and jockey forge together on into the void. A journey that began with three horses three hundred years ago through centuries of thoroughbred breeding has come to this latest inescapable moment. Onwards, with every hoof beat, into this unknown...

Sir Michael Stoute’s Sea Moon rocketed to favouritism for the season’s final British classic after a demolition job on the Great Voltiguer at York last time.

His performance was beguiling as he put his rivals (including Irish Derby second Seville) to the sword, running out an easy winner. Was the suicidal early pace of the O'Brien pacemaker to blame in leaving his endurance bred rivals out on their feet at the business end of the race? Possibly. With fellow Leger hope Namibian underperforming and subsequently found to have colic what is the worth of the form?

Seville was well behind Masked Marvel in the Derby at Epsom so could seemingly have a fair bit to find when he reopposes with John Gosden’s charge and the horse that one narrowly beat earlier in the season at Newbury, Census. Having been there or there abouts in a lot of group ones but has never had quite the ability to get his head in front. With the traditional Coolmore peloton conspicious by their absence he will be left to duke it out solo along way from home on saturday.

The horse that stands out is for me is Blue Bunting. What I would give to be holding on to a 6/1 docket with this young lady's name on it!

If you put your faith in omens then you will pleased to know that she takes her name from Cyanocompsa parellina, a small bird native to Latin America. Not an omen you say?! Well... back to remedial orthnithology for you for they are sexually dimorphic creatures. Despite the name only males of the species have a deep blue plummage in common with the Godolphin silks. Blue Bunting sees no reason to accept that because of her gender she may not bear that stratospheric blue. She will have whatever the colts have and more, she is emancipated.

One of the most consistent horses around this year having already won three group ones , she’s still 4/1 with most layers and looks like a smashing little bet to nothing for the each way thieves.

In the last decade half of the small number of fillies entered in the race have placed and the 3lbs weight allowance they receive has all the more time to aid them over a longer trip.

Blue Bunting is bred for stamina but had enough toe to steal this seasons 1000 Guineas and with 5 time St Leger winning pilot Frankie Dettori in the stirrups (the same man who has ridden her to three G1 success and one ignominious failure this season) she's certain to make the frame if not fly to victory.


For your Exacta:

1. Blue Bunting

2. Census

3. Masked Marvel

Tuesday, 22 February 2011

Big Race Preview: Racing Post Chase, Kempton Park: Tatenen - Renaissance Horse

Hello there Punters,

Whilst I cannot tell you where I have been it's sufficient for you to know that I'm now back to guide your hands and hearts . All roads lead to Prestbury Park at this time of year but let's look away from Cheltenham for a moment and lower our gaze upon Kempton and this weekend's Racing Post Chase where I have a selection

He doesn't meet all the trends for Saturday's big race and I wouldn't advise mortgaging the farm on the lad but I have a feeling Tatenen will more than do himself justice and could go in at 12/1.

Tatenen began his career in late 2007 as a promising young 2 miler but after initial successes began slipping down the rungs of the chasing ladder. He suffered the odd fall and unseated his rider on a few occaisions. Disappointment after disappointment has seen him moved on three times during his career and he has come to rest at the small West Sussex operation run by Richard Rowe. Here it seems he has found some respite from the demons that were weighing him down.

A frivolous (and miniscule) wager went in for me recently when he landed odds of 20/1in a Handicap at Ascot back in January. My reasoning for backing him that day(the outsider in that race) was that surely he had to reproduce some of his early form eventually and so it proved as he won more or less as he pleased from hardy handicappers such as The Sawyer, Edgbriar and Breedsbreeze.

He looked a different animal and jumping convincingly on almost every occaision put his rivals to the sword to score by 16 lengths. He goes into saturday's race with plenty of potential to continue his rejuvenation and the step up in trip may even bring further improvement.

I for one would thoroughly enjoy seeing Tatenen continue his renaissance.

Wednesday, 5 January 2011

From the front line...betting shop wisdom # 3 January's Window of Opportunity

After the relentless consumption and bonhomie of the modern ‘festive period’ the return to workaday austerity can often come as a salve to our bloated senses. The seasonal gambler is usually served up such feast of sport over Christmas that one could be forgiven for finding their will to gamble all but consumed by the torpor that has traditionally enveloped other appetites by the time the new year comes.

This year however the big freeze left us with a dearth of punting pleasures, taking a chunk out of the football schedule and causing the postponement of Kempton’s King George VI card and the Welsh National at Chepstow. Such abstinence may have been downright unseasonal but this could have been a blessing in disguise as we now enter into a golden month for football gambles with all the added wherewithal our enforced restraint has left in our wallets.

The period that is bookended at the beginning by the seasonal fixture backlog in the United Kingdom and the winter break for the softies in mainland Europe and at the end by the return of the best sides to European competition in February is a great time of year for the football punter as it offers the best conditions for predictable outcomes. With no distractions from European competition the momth of January offers the best teams the chance to consistently put out their best available sides without need to have recourse to squad rotation. Consequently the good should, and most often does out. The keys to exploiting this profitably are as follows...

The Tools

The two websites you will need are Betfair and futbol24.com . The former as it allows you to place multiples on an extremely wide range of leagues, the latter because it is peerless in the world of free football form websites.

The Rules

  • Take a pan-european approach- Punt using traditional pText Colourowerhouses (Olympiakos in Greece, Anderlecht in Belgium, Barcelona in Spain etc) as your starting point and the formbook to seal the deal.
  • Be strict with value– Avoid betting odds skinnier than 1.15 as they don’t often reflect the chance a team has of winning. Avoid betting above 2.10 as this tends to suggest too dicey a fixture to put in a multiple.
  • Stake sensibly - This part of the footballing calendar lends itself to daily incremental wins so bet to build profit over time.
  • Keep it real – Don’t get flashy with your multiples. Doubles, trebles and the very occasional four-timer are the order of the day.

That is really all there is to it so all that remains is to wish you Good Luck!